[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 24 July 26 issued 2330 UT on 24 Jul 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Jul 25 09:30:47 AEST 2026


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JULY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JULY - 27 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jul:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jul: 150/105


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Jul             26 Jul             27 Jul
Activity     R0-R1              R0-R1              R0-R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            155/109            155/109

COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 24-Jul was at the R0 
level, with no significant flares observed. There are currently 
six active sunspot regions on the visible disk, with Active Region 
(AR) 4493 (N05W46, beta) being the largest. This region has shown 
some minor decay over the past UT day. AR 4496 (N06E60, beta) 
has shown growth over the same period, as it continues to rotate 
from the eastern limb. AR 4494 (S04E27, beta-delta) maintains 
a delta configuration, and has remained stable. All other regions 
are either stable or in decay. Solar flare activity is forecast 
to be at the R0-R1 level over 25-27 Jul, due to the flare potential 
from several active regions currently on the disk. S0 solar radiation 
storm conditions were observed on 24-Jul. S0 solar radiation 
storm conditions are forecast over 25-27 Jul. A south-directed 
medium-velocity coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO 
imaging from 24/0449UT following a filament eruption visible 
in GOES/SUVI 304A and GONG Halpha imaging from 24/0419UT. Modelling 
suggests a partial impact at Earth is expected on 27-Jul at 27/1100UT 
+/- 10 hours. The solar wind speed was elevated over 24-Jul due 
to the ongoing effects of a northern coronal hole high speed 
wind stream. The solar wind speed began the day at 630-670 km/s, 
and slowly declined as the high speed wind stream effect waned, 
and is currently at 540-550 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic 
field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 8 nT early in the UT day, 
with the north-south component (Bz) ranging between -7 and +6 
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue declining over 
25-26 Jul as the coronal hole continues to move past a geoeffective 
position. The solar wind will then increase on 27-Jul due to 
the forecast impact of the CME first observed on 24-Jul.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jul: G0

Estimated Indices 24 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   32100000
      Cocos Island         3   32110000
      Darwin               3   32100000
      Townsville           5   33210001
      Learmonth            5   43100000
      Alice Springs        3   32200000
      Gingin               5   42200000
      Canberra             3   32100001
      Kennaook Cape Grim   5   42110000
      Hobart               5   42110001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     1   21100000
      Casey                7   43211100
      Mawson              27   74432001

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              60   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            34   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              43   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             22   2233 3553     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Jul     7    G0
26 Jul     5    G0
27 Jul    21    G1

COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 46 was issued on 23 July and 
is current for 24-25 Jul. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian 
region were at the G0 level on UT day 24-Jul, with G0 conditions 
reported at the planetary scale. Mostly G0 conditions were reported 
in the Antarctic region, with an isolated G3 interval recorded 
early in the UT day at Mawson. G0 conditions are forecast over 
25-26 Jul. G1 conditions are expected on 27-Jul due to the partial 
impact of a CME first observed on 24-Jul.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Jul      Fair           Fair           Fair

COMMENT: Global high frequency (HF) radio propagation conditions 
on UT day 24-Jul were normal to fair, with some degradations 
observed in the northern hemisphere mid and high latitude regions, 
particularly over the European and North American regions. Global 
HF propagation conditions are forecast to be mostly normal over 
25-26 Jul, becoming fair on 27-Jul due to anticipated geomagnetic 
activity. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Jul    83

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      81
Jul      66
Aug      63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values
26 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values
27 Jul    60    Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian 
region were mostly near predicted values over 24-Jul. Strong 
mixed spread-F was observed at Canberra, Hobart, Perth, and Learmonth 
during local night hours. MUFs are forecast to be near predicted 
monthly values over the period 25-26 Jul, with depressions of 
15% forecast for 27-Jul due to forecast geomagnetic activity. 
Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jul
Speed: 604 km/sec  Density:    7.5 p/cc  Temp:   352000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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