[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 28 January 26 issued 2330 UT on 28 Jan 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Jan 29 10:30:48 AEDT 2026


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JANUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JANUARY - 31 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jan: R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jan: 133/87


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Jan             30 Jan             31 Jan
Activity     R0, Chance R1      R0, Chance R1      R0, Chance R1    
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             120/72             110/60

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was at the R0 level on UT day 28-Jan. 
There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions visible on 
the solar disk. Active Region (AR) 4349 (S14E44, alpha) is currently 
the largest region on the solar disk but is showing simple magnetic 
complexity. AR4357 (S13W17, beta) has shown mild growth over 
the UT day. All other regions appear stable or in decay. Solar 
flare activity is expected to remain at the R0 level, with a 
chance of R1 over 29-31 Jan. Solar radiation storm conditions 
were at the S0 level on UT day 28-Jan. S0 conditions are expected 
for 29-31 Jan. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were 
observed over the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed ranged 
between 650-450 km/s across the UT day and is currently 630 km/s. 
The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 
13 nT during 28-Jan, with the North-South component (Bz) ranging 
between -12 and +12 nT over the last UT day. The solar wind speed 
is expected to remain mildly elevated over 29-30 Jan, due to 
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. The solar wind speed 
is expected to return to background levels on 31-Jan.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jan: G0

Estimated Indices 28 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region      16   22234434
      Cocos Island        11   21223423
      Darwin              16   22234434
      Townsville          17   13234434
      Learmonth           19   22234534
      Alice Springs       14   12234433
      Gingin              16   22234434
      Canberra            16   13334433
      Kennaook Cape Grim  21   23335434
      Hobart              21   23335434    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jan :
      Macquarie Island    40   13257633
      Casey               37   34645445
      Mawson              73   45445847

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jan : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              33   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            43   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              55   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             22                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10   2322 1233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Jan    12    G0, chance G1
30 Jan    12    G0, chance G1
31 Jan     8    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in Australia 
and a brief period of G4 has been observed in Antarctic regions. 
G0 with chance of G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 
29-30 Jan due to high speed wind stream effects from a geoeffective 
coronal hole. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected for 31-Jan.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
31 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were mostly normal, with 
only some minor degradations seen in the Americas during local 
dawn. MUFs in the European region were near predicted values. 
Ionospheric conditions are expected to remain Normal over 29-31 
Jan, with some minor degradations possible due to coronal hole 
high speed wind stream effects.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Jan   110

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      110
Jan      89
Feb      88

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Jan   125    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Jan   115    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
31 Jan   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian 
region and Antarctic regions were near predicted monthly values 
to 15% enhanced. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly 
values to 15% enhanced over 29-31 Jan. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jan
Speed: 425 km/sec  Density:    3.8 p/cc  Temp:    88900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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