[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 26 January 26 issued 2330 UT on 26 Jan 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Jan 27 10:30:49 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JANUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JANUARY - 29 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jan: 153/108
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jan 28 Jan 29 Jan
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 145/99 140/94
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was at the R0 level on UT day 26-Jan,
with a C8.8 flare from Active Region (AR) 4355 (S12E19, beta)
being the largest observed. This region is one of eight numbered
regions on the solar disk, with AR 4349 (S14W13, alpha) remaining
the largest. This region has shown some minor decay over the
last UT day, while AR 4351 (S05W45, beta-gamma) and AR 4347 (N11W58,
beta) have shown some growth during the same period. A new region
has appeared on the disk at S08E08 and currently has a beta magnetic
classification. All other regions appear stable or in decay,
with three previously flare-active regions, AR 4341 (S09W85,
alpha), AR 4342 (N18W81, alpha), and AR 4345 (S16W78, alpha),
expected to rotate off the visible solar disk within the next
24 hours. Solar flare activity is expected to remain at the R0
level, with a chance of R1, over 27-29 Jan. Solar radiation storm
conditions were at the S0 level on UT day 26-Jan, with the proton
flux continuing to slowly decline. Solar proton flux began the
day at 0.672 pfu, and is currently at 0.565 pfu. S0 conditions,
with a chance of S1, are forecast for 27-Jan, with a decline
to S0 conditions forecast for 28-29 Jan. No Earth directed coronal
mass ejections were observed over the past 24 hours in available
coronagraph imagery. The solar wind speed broadly ranged between
450-500 km/s across the UT day, with several small intervals
of elevated solar wind speed of 550 km/s observed. The interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 9 nT during 26-Jan,
with the North-South component (Bz) ranging between -6 and +7
nT over the last UT day. The solar wind speed is expected to
show a small enhancement over 27-28 Jan, as a small equatorial
coronal hole high speed wind stream becomes geoeffective. A decline
in the solar wind is expected on 29-Jan, as this high speed wind
stream continues to rotate across the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 26 Jan : A K
Australian Region 10 11233332
Cocos Island 6 11222222
Darwin 9 12233223
Townsville 9 11233322
Learmonth 8 11133232
Alice Springs 8 21233222
Gingin 11 22233332
Canberra 10 11233332
Kennaook Cape Grim 10 11233332
Hobart 11 11333332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jan :
Macquarie Island 20 11355431
Casey 17 34433233
Mawson 27 43344355
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15 3333 333-
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jan 18 G0, chance of G1
28 Jan 21 G0, chance of G1
29 Jan 12 G0
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at the G0 level on UT day
26-Jan, with G0 conditions reported across the entire Australian
region and at the planetary level. Some G1 intervals were reported
at Macquarie Island and Mawson, with G0 conditions otherwise
observed in the Antarctic region. G0, with a chance of G1 conditions,
are forecast on 27-28 Jan, as a small equatorial coronal hole
high speed wind stream connects with Earth. G0 conditions are
forecast on 29 Jan, as this coronal hole continues to move across
the solar surface.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were mostly Normal, with
only some minor degradations seen in the Americas during local
dawn. MUFs in the European region were near predicted values.
Ionospheric conditions are expected to remain Normal over 27-29
Jan, with some minor degradations possible due to coronal hole
high speed wind stream effects.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jan 130
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 89
Feb 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jan 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Jan 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Jan 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
and Antarctic regions were near predicted monthly values to 20%
enhanced, with up to 50% enhancements seen in the Northern Australia
region during local night. Seasonal sporadic-E was observed in
the Southern Australian region, with strong sporadic-E reported
in the Cocos Islands. Spread F was also observed in Hobart. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
over 27-29 Jan, with geomagnetic activity from a small coronal
hole high speed wind stream likely to prevent further enhancements
over this period. Sporadic-E may be observed during local night
hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jan
Speed: 538 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 161000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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