[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 20 August 26 issued 2330 UT on 20 Aug 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Aug 21 09:30:51 AEST 2026


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 AUGUST 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 21 AUGUST - 23 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Aug:  R2

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.8    0805UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M8.1    1142UT  probable   lower  European
  M2.9    1611UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Aug: 125/78


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Aug             22 Aug             23 Aug
Activity     R1-R2              R1-R2              R1-R2
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 20-Aug was at the R2 
level due to an M8.1 flare at 20/1142UT produced by Active Region 
(AR) 4513 (N04E65, beta). This region also produced two flares 
at the R1 level over the UT day. There are currently four numbered 
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered 
region. Region 4513 was the most flare active over the UT day 
and has shown spot growth in its leader spots. AR 4507 (N05W78, 
beta) has shown decay in its intermediate spots and will soon 
rotate beyond the western limb. Region 4514 (S10W51, beta) has 
exhibited mild spot growth over the 24-hour period. An unnumbered 
region recently rotated over the eastern limb near S09E80 (alpha) 
and appears stable. All other regions are either stable or in 
decay. Solar flare activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels 
over 21-23 Aug due to the observed flare activity from region 
4513. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT 
day 20-Aug. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected 
over 21-23 Aug. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) 
have been observed. A west-directed CME was observed, visible 
in STEREO-A coronagraph imagery from 20/1223UT. This CME is considered 
to be associated with the aforementioned M8.1 flare from AR 4513. 
Modelling indicates this CME will pass behind the Earth, with 
no geoeffective component. An east-directed CME observed in LASCO 
C2 coronagraph imagery at 20/1848UT is considered a farside event 
and therefore not geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day 
20-Aug mildly declined, ranging between 595 and 500 km/s, and 
is currently near 525 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic 
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component 
(Bz) range was -5 to +5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected 
to decline over 21-23 Aug due to waning coronal hole high speed 
wind stream effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Aug: G0

Estimated Indices 20 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22213122
      Cocos Island         5   12212121
      Darwin               7   22213122
      Townsville           7   22213122
      Learmonth            8   22213132
      Alice Springs        7   22213122
      Gingin               8   22213132
      Canberra             7   22113222
      Kennaook Cape Grim   7   22213122
      Hobart               7   22113222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     8   22214212
      Casey               15   34423232
      Mawson              44   64423375

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              19   (Quiet)
      Canberra            50   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              19   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20   3544 3223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Aug    12    G0
22 Aug     8    G0
23 Aug     6    G0

COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 51 was issued on 19 August 
and is current for 19-21 Aug. G0 geomagnetic conditions were 
observed in the planetary and Australian regions on UT day 20-Aug. 
G3 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. 
G0 planetary geomagnetic conditions are expected over 21-23 Aug.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 20-Aug were 
mostly normal. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to 
be mostly normal over 21-23 Aug. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Aug    73

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      75
Aug      64
Sep      61

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Aug    75    Near predicted monthly values
22 Aug    75    Near predicted monthly values
23 Aug    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 75 was issued on 
20 August and is current for 20-22 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 20-Aug were near predicted 
monthly values. Spread F was observed at Hobart and Perth during 
local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly 
values over 21-23 Aug. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B9.4

Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Aug
Speed: 562 km/sec  Density:    6.7 p/cc  Temp:   264000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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