[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 09 August 26 issued 2330 UT on 09 Aug 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Aug 10 09:30:50 AEST 2026


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 AUGUST 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 10 AUGUST - 12 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Aug:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Aug:  94/40


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Aug             11 Aug             12 Aug
Activity     R0                 R0                 R0  
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              92/37

COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 09-Aug was at the R0 
level, with no significant flares observed. There are currently 
two numbered active regions (ARs) on the solar disk and one unnumbered 
region. AR 4503 (S17W01, beta) showed spot development over the 
UT day. An unnumbered region has recently developed at around 
N16W73 with beta magnetic characteristics. AR 4504 (S19E16, beta) 
showed spot decay over the UT day. All these regions are small, 
quiet and magnetically simple. Solar flare activity is forecast 
to be at the R0 level over 10-12 Aug due to a lack of complex 
active regions. Solar radiation storm conditions were at the 
S0 level on 09-Aug and are forecast to remain at this level over 
10-12 Aug. No geoeffective coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were 
observed on 09-Aug. Further modelling on the CME first observed 
at 08/0838UT suggests this CME will impact with less strength 
than originally modelled. But a glancing impact is still possible 
in the second half of 12-Aug. The solar wind speed increased 
over 09-Aug, mostly ranging between 330 km/s and 470 km/s and 
is currently at around 440 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic 
field strength (IMF, Bt) weakened over the UT day as recent CME 
impact effects waned. The maximum field strength was 16 nT, but 
dropped to 6 nT for most of the day, and the north south component 
(Bz) ranged between +9 and -11 nT. The solar wind speed is expected 
to remain at current levels, with a possible slight decline on 
10-Aug. High speed wind stream effects from multiple small coronal 
holes combined with two anticipated glancing CME impacts suggest 
an increase in solar wind speed over 11-12 Aug.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Aug: G0

Estimated Indices 09 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22211011
      Cocos Island         3   22210010
      Darwin               4   22211011
      Townsville           4   22211011
      Learmonth            5   32211021
      Alice Springs        4   22211011
      Gingin               5   32211120
      Canberra             3   11211011
      Kennaook Cape Grim   4   22211011
      Hobart               3   12211011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     4   21132000
      Casey               11   34331122
      Mawson              17   54322133

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             27   1224 5463     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Aug     4    G0
11 Aug    14    G0, chance of G1
12 Aug    18    G0, chance of G1

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic activity was observed at the planetary 
level and in the Australian region. Mostly G0 conditions were 
observed in the Antarctic region, with a period of G1 observed 
at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 10-Aug. 
G0 conditions, with a chance of G1 are expected over 11-12 Aug 
due to a combination of high speed wind stream effects from several 
small coronal holes and two anticipated glancing CME impacts.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Aug      Normal-fair    Fair-normal    Poor-fair      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
11 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
12 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Global high-frequency (HF) radio propagation conditions 
on UT day 09-Aug were poor at high latitudes and fair to normal 
at mid and low latitudes. Degradations were due to recent geomagnetic 
activity. Propagation conditions are expected to improve over 
10-11 Aug. Potential geomagnetic activity on 11-12 Aug may degrade 
propagation conditions at high latitudes on 12-Aug.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Aug    42

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      75
Aug      64
Sep      61

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Aug    45    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10%
11 Aug    60    Near predicted monthly values
12 Aug    50    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 70 was issued on 9 August 
and is current for 9-10 Aug. Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) 
on UT day 09-Aug were depressed during local daylight hours in 
the southern Australian region and during local night hours in 
the northern Australian region. Depressions appear to be easing 
heading into 10-Aug. Spread F and some instances of sporadic 
E were observed throughout the Australian region during local 
night hours. MUFs are forecast to be near predicted monthly values 
over 10-12 Aug, with mild depressions possible on 10-Aug.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Aug
Speed: 336 km/sec  Density:    9.6 p/cc  Temp:   127000 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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