[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 August 26 issued 2347 UT on 08 Aug 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Aug 9 09:47:17 AEST 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 AUGUST 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 09 AUGUST - 11 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Aug: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Aug: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 08-Aug was at the R0
level, with no significant flares observed. There are currently
five active regions visible on the solar disk. Newly numbered
active region (AR) 4504 (S19E29, alpha) showed low level spot
development over the UT day. All other regions are small and
stable and most will rotate off the solar disk today. Solar flare
activity is forecast to be at the R0 level over 09-11 Aug due
to a lack of complex active regions. Solar radiation storm conditions
were at the S0 level on 08-Aug and are forecast to remain at
this level over 09-11 Aug. A north east directed narrow coronal
mass ejection (CME) visible from 07/2312UT is associated with
activity over the eastern limb and is not considered geoeffective.
A north directed CME visible from 08/0424UT in SOHO and STEREO-A
imagery is associated with an on disk eruption visible from 08/0233UT
in H-alpha, SDO and GOES SUVI imagery at around N20E15. Analysis
of this CME was made difficult due to a lack of SOHO coronagraph
imagery. Modelling suggests this CME may produce a glancing impact
with Earth on 11-Aug at 2300UT +/- 12 hours. A southwest directed
CME from 08/0838UT is visible only in STEREO-A imagery. This
CME is associated with a filament lift off, visible in H-alpha,
SDO and GOES SUVI imagery from 08/0623UT at around S25W55. Analysis
of this CME was difficult due to a lack of SOHO coronagraph imagery.
Modelling suggests this CME may produce a glancing impact with
Earth on 12-Aug at 1600UT +/- 12 hours. The solar wind speed
increased over 07-Aug, mostly ranging between 250 km/s and 370
km/s and is currently at around 365 km/s. The interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) became enhanced from 0600UT,
possibly due to the anticipated arrival of a CME glancing impact.
The maximum field strength was 18 nT and the north south component
(Bz) ranged between +15 and -18 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain at current levels, with a slight decline expected over
09-10 Aug. A slight increase is possible late on 10-Aug or on
11-Aug due to multiple small coronal holes rotating towards a
geoeffective position. A further increase is possible late on
11-Aug due to a glancing impact from a CME first observed on
08-Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Aug: G1
Estimated Indices 08 Aug : A K
Australian Region 18 12345243
Cocos Island 11 12333233
Darwin 12 12-34233
Townsville 17 12345233
Learmonth 23 12345354
Alice Springs 17 12335243
Gingin 18 01334354
Canberra 17 11245243
Kennaook Cape Grim 19 01245344
Hobart 19 01245344
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Aug :
Macquarie Island 33 00075444
Casey 17 13244244
Mawson 34 12234475
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 27
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 0021 2101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Aug 15 G1, chance of G2
10 Aug 7 G0
11 Aug 12 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 50 was issued on 8 August
and is current for 8-9 Aug. G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
on 08-Aug in the Australian region. G2 geomagnetic conditions
were observed at the planetary level and mostly G3 conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. G1 geomagnetic activity
is expected on 09-Aug, with a chance of G2. The strongest geomagnetic
activity is expected in the first half of the UT day. G0 conditions
are expected over 10-11 Aug, with a chance of G1 on 11-Aug due
to a combination of potential coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects and a possible glancing CME impact.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Global high-frequency (HF) radio propagation conditions
on UT day 08-Aug were normal to fair, with some depressed conditions
and degradations observed at low and mid latitudes over the UT
day. Global HF propagation conditions are forecast to be mostly
normal over the period 09-11 Aug.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Aug 47
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 75
Aug 64
Sep 61
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Aug 50 Near predicted monthly values
10 Aug 50 Near predicted monthly values
11 Aug 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 08-Aug in
the southern Australian region were mostly near predicted monthly
values, with depressions observed after local dawn hours. MUFs
in the northern Australian region were depressed during the local
day. Spread F was observed at almost all sites in the Australian
region during local night hours. Significant sporadic E was observed
at Learmonth during local night hours. MUFs are forecast to be
mostly near predicted values over 09-11 Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Aug
Speed: 270 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 23100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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