[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 September 25 issued 2330 UT on 10 Sep 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Sep 11 09:30:48 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 SEPTEMBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 SEPTEMBER - 13 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Sep: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-Sep was at R0. There are
currently seven numbered regions visible on the solar disk. AR4213
(S13W23, beta) is the largest region and is showing some decay
of its intermediates All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 Level
with a chance of R1 over 11-13 Sep. No Earth directed CMEs have
been observed. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed
on UT day 10 Sep. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected
over 11-13 Sep. A large equatorial coronal hole is crossing the
solar central meridian. The solar wind speed on UT day 10-Sep
was moderately elevated and steady ranging from 470 to 560 km/s
and is currently near 480 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was -5 to +7 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to start to slowly decline due to the wind stream
from the coronal hole located in the southern western solar hemisphere
starting to move out of a geoeffective position through the UT
day. The equatorial coronal hole is expected to increase the
solar wind from 14-15 Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 10 Sep : A K
Australian Region 6 22112311
Cocos Island 4 21112210
Darwin 6 32111212
Townsville 5 22111222
Learmonth 7 32112321
Alice Springs 4 22111202
Gingin 8 32112322
Canberra 6 23111311
Kennaook Cape Grim 7 23112311
Hobart 7 23112311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Sep :
Macquarie Island 7 34021200
Casey 13 34422222
Mawson 28 56222245
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 15 3233 2324
Planetary 19 3233 3236
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Sep 10 G0 with a chance of G1
12 Sep 8 G0 with a chance of G1
13 Sep 8 G0 with a chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 10-Sep. In the Antarctic region G0 geomagnetic
conditions with isolated G2 conditions were observed. G0 with
a chance of G1 are expected on 11-13 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 10-Sep were
fair to normal. Some absorption observed in the Macquarie Island
30 Mhz riometer early in the UT day on 10-Sep. HF radio propagation
conditions are generally expected to be fair to normal over 11-13
Sep. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Sep 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 96
Sep 92
Oct 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Sep 95 Near predicted monthly values
12 Sep 95 Near predicted monthly values
13 Sep 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the northern Australian
region on UT day 10-Sep were near predicted monthly values. Spread
F was observed at Canberra and Hobart during local night hours.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values on 11-13
Sep. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Sep
Speed: 475 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 88200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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