[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 09 September 25 issued 2330 UT on 09 Sep 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Sep 10 09:30:49 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 SEPTEMBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 SEPTEMBER - 12 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Sep: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 09-Sep was at R0 with only
C class flares observed. There are currently seven numbered and
two unnumbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk with
AR4213 (S13E03, beta) being the most magnetically complex region
which has shown slight decay in its intermediates over the UT
day. AR4214 (N05W36, beta) is a new spot which has shown growth
through the UT day. Unnumbered spots (N22W12, beta) and (N15W03,
alpha) are new spots showing growth over the UT day. All other
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R0 Level with a chance of R1 over 10-12
Sep. A CME was observed from around the western limb from 09/1224UT
bit is considered farside and therefore not geoeffective. North
directed filament eruptions have continued from near AR4207 (N31W53,
beta) which has been associated with narrow CME's which are not
considered geoeffective. No other CME's were observed. S0 solar
radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 09 Sep. S0
solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 10-12 Sep.
A recurrent coronal hole in the south western hemisphere was
in a geoeffective position throughout the UT day. The solar wind
speed on UT day 09-Sep has remained steady ranging from 410 to
580 km/s and is currently near 510 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was -7 to +5nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to start to slowly decline due to the wind stream
from the coronal hole located in the southern western solar hemisphere
starting to move out of a geoeffective position through the UT
day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Sep: G1
Estimated Indices 09 Sep : A K
Australian Region 9 22222224
Cocos Island 7 22221123
Darwin 11 32322224
Townsville 11 22332224
Learmonth 8 22322123
Alice Springs 9 22221224
Gingin 8 22221233
Canberra 10 22232224
Kennaook Cape Grim 10 22232224
Hobart 11 22232234
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Sep :
Macquarie Island 10 22243222
Casey 16 34432323
Mawson 31 35433256
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 3433 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Sep 12 G0-G1
11 Sep 10 G0, chance of G1
12 Sep 8 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 09-Sep. In the Antarctic region G0 geomagnetic
conditions with isolated G1 conditions were observed. G0 with
a chance of G1 are expected on 10-12 Sep due to ongoing coronal
hole wind stream influence. Another recurrent coronal hole will
start crossing the central meridian over the UT day and will
be in a geoeffective position in 4-5 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 09-Sep were
fair to normal. HF radio propagation conditions are generally
expected to be mostly fair to normal over 10-12 Sep due to the
recurrent coronal hole in a geoeffective region. Isolated minor
shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Sep 84
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 96
Sep 92
Oct 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Sep 90 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
11 Sep 95 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
12 Sep 95 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the northern Australian
region on UT day 09-Sep were near predicted monthly values to
depressed by 15% during local night. Spread F was observed at
Canberra and Hobart during local night and dawn hours. Spread
F is forecasted at high latitudes during local night due to the
ongoing coronal hole. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to depressed by 15% on 10-12 Sep. Isolated minor
shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Sep
Speed: 516 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 79900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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