[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 30 October 25 issued 2330 UT on 30 Oct 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Oct 31 10:30:43 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 OCTOBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 OCTOBER - 02 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Oct: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Oct 01 Nov 02 Nov
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 30-Oct was at the R0 level,
with one low level C-class flare observed. There are currently
five numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR4267
(N08W21, beta) is the largest region on the disk and has decayed
over the UT day. Newly numbered AR4271 (S09E60, alpha) is stable.
All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 31-Oct to 02-Nov.
S0 solar proton conditions were observed on UT day 30-Oct. S0
solar proton conditions are expected over 31-Oct to 02-Nov. Several
CMEs were observed over the UT day. A broad northeast-directed
CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from
30/0426UT. This CME is considered a farside event and not geoeffective.
A filament eruption was observed, visible in GOES SUVI imagery
beginning at 30/0810UT centred near N23W31. A subsequent associated
low velocity CME was observed, visible in STEREO-A coronagraph
imagery from 30/1153UT. Modelling indicates this CME may contain
a minor Earth-directed component, however it is not considered
significant. All other CMEs observed on 30-Oct are not considered
geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day 30-Oct increased,
ranging from 475 to 640 km/s and is currently near 640 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 16 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -15
to +12 nT. A sustained period of southward IMF conditions was
observed over the interval 30/0606-0855UT. A second period of
southward IMF conditions was observed over the interval 30/0948-1150UT.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated over 31-Oct
to 02-Nov due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Oct: G1
Estimated Indices 30 Oct : A K
Australian Region 24 33355433
Cocos Island 16 33244323
Darwin 21 33344434
Townsville 22 33345433
Learmonth 28 43355533
Alice Springs 21 33345423
Gingin 25 42355433
Canberra 22 33354433
Kennaook Cape Grim 27 33355533
Hobart 27 33355533
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Oct :
Macquarie Island 51 34467643
Casey 45 56655334
Mawson 49 55555546
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Oct :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 17 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 41 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 27
Planetary 36
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20 3333 3444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Oct 22 G1
01 Nov 16 G0, chance of G1
02 Nov 10 G0
COMMENT: G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and planetary regions on UT day 30-Oct. Mostly G2 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated
period of G3 observed at Macquarie Island. Geomagnetic activity
was associated with Earth's entry into a coronal hole high speed
wind stream. G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 31-Oct
due to ongoing coronal hole effects. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 01-02 Nov, with a chance of G1 on 01-Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Oct Normal Fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
01 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 30-Oct were
mostly normal, with fair conditions observed at mid latitudes.
Normal to fair conditions are expected on 31-Oct due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity. Mostly normal conditions are expected over
01-02 Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Oct 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 109
Oct 89
Nov 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Oct 65 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
01 Nov 80 Near predicted monthly values
02 Nov 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 30-Oct were
near predicted monthly values in northern Australia. MUFs were
depressed by 20-35% in southern Australian regions. Spread F
was observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed on 31-Oct,
returning to near predicted monthly values over 01-02 Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Oct
Speed: 470 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 170000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list