[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 29 October 25 issued 2330 UT on 29 Oct 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Oct 30 10:30:49 AEDT 2025


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 OCTOBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 OCTOBER - 01 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Oct:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Oct: 118/70


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Oct             31 Oct             01 Nov
Activity     R0                 R0                 R0
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   118/70             115/66             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 29-Oct was at the R0 level, 
with no significant flaring activity. There are currently six 
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and three 
unnumbered regions. AR4267 (N08W09, beta) is the largest region 
on the disk and has shown decay in its leader spots. AR4266 (N16W33, 
beta) has shown mild spot growth. An unnumbered region recently 
appeared near N31E21 (beta) and has shown mild growth. A second 
unnumbered region is visible near N11E31 (alpha) and has shown 
recent decay. A third unnumbered region recently rotated over 
the eastern limb near S09E78 (alpha) and appears stable. All 
other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity 
is expected to be at the R0 level over 30-Oct to 01-Nov. S0 solar 
proton conditions were observed on UT day 29-Oct. S0 solar proton 
conditions are expected over 30-Oct to 01-Nov. No Earth-directed 
CMEs have been observed. A broad northeast-directed CME was observed, 
visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from 29/0012UT. This 
CME is considered a farside event and not geoeffective. A disappearing 
filament was observed, visible in H-alpha imagery from 29/0259UT 
centred near N30W21. No significant CME was observed in association 
with this event. The solar wind speed on UT day 29-Oct was mostly 
stable, ranging from 440 to 530 km/s and is currently near 485 
km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, 
Bt) was 14 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was 
-11 to +13 nT. A sustained period of southward IMF conditions 
was observed over the interval 29/1426-1634UT. A second period 
of southward IMF conditions was observed over the interval 29/2109-2240UT. 
The solar wind speed is expected to mildly increase on 30-Oct 
due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream effects, then 
decline from 31-Oct.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Oct: G0

Estimated Indices 29 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region      11   22223333
      Cocos Island         8   22222322
      Darwin              14   33223334
      Townsville          12   23223333
      Learmonth           13   32223433
      Alice Springs       11   22223333
      Gingin              13   32322334
      Canberra            10   22222333
      Kennaook Cape Grim  13   23323333
      Hobart              13   23323333    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    29   23344653
      Casey               28   55543333
      Mawson              40   34554465

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Oct : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              54   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            37   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              88   (Minor storm)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             21                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             19   3332 4344     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Oct    22    G0-G1
31 Oct     8    G0
01 Nov     6    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 29-Oct. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Antarctic region. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected 
on UT day 30-Oct due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. 
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 31-Oct to 01-Nov.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
31 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 29-Oct were 
mostly normal, with fair conditions observed at mid latitudes. 
Normal to fair conditions are expected on 30-Oct due to anticipated 
geomagnetic activity. Mostly normal conditions are expected over 
31-Oct to 01-Nov.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Oct    82

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      109
Oct      89
Nov      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Oct    80    Near predicted monthly values
31 Oct    90    Near predicted monthly values
01 Nov    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 29-Oct were 
near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced in northern Australia. 
MUFs were depressed by 15-25% in southern Australian regions. 
Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. Ionospheric 
scintillation was observed at Darwin over the interval 29/1227-1430UT. 
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 30-Oct 
to 01-Nov.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Oct
Speed: 417 km/sec  Density:    6.8 p/cc  Temp:   127000 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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