[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 29 October 25 issued 2330 UT on 29 Oct 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Oct 30 10:30:49 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 OCTOBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 OCTOBER - 01 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Oct: 118/70
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Oct 31 Oct 01 Nov
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 118/70 115/66 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 29-Oct was at the R0 level,
with no significant flaring activity. There are currently six
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and three
unnumbered regions. AR4267 (N08W09, beta) is the largest region
on the disk and has shown decay in its leader spots. AR4266 (N16W33,
beta) has shown mild spot growth. An unnumbered region recently
appeared near N31E21 (beta) and has shown mild growth. A second
unnumbered region is visible near N11E31 (alpha) and has shown
recent decay. A third unnumbered region recently rotated over
the eastern limb near S09E78 (alpha) and appears stable. All
other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R0 level over 30-Oct to 01-Nov. S0 solar
proton conditions were observed on UT day 29-Oct. S0 solar proton
conditions are expected over 30-Oct to 01-Nov. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. A broad northeast-directed CME was observed,
visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from 29/0012UT. This
CME is considered a farside event and not geoeffective. A disappearing
filament was observed, visible in H-alpha imagery from 29/0259UT
centred near N30W21. No significant CME was observed in association
with this event. The solar wind speed on UT day 29-Oct was mostly
stable, ranging from 440 to 530 km/s and is currently near 485
km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 14 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
-11 to +13 nT. A sustained period of southward IMF conditions
was observed over the interval 29/1426-1634UT. A second period
of southward IMF conditions was observed over the interval 29/2109-2240UT.
The solar wind speed is expected to mildly increase on 30-Oct
due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream effects, then
decline from 31-Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 29 Oct : A K
Australian Region 11 22223333
Cocos Island 8 22222322
Darwin 14 33223334
Townsville 12 23223333
Learmonth 13 32223433
Alice Springs 11 22223333
Gingin 13 32322334
Canberra 10 22222333
Kennaook Cape Grim 13 23323333
Hobart 13 23323333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Oct :
Macquarie Island 29 23344653
Casey 28 55543333
Mawson 40 34554465
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Oct :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 54 (Unsettled)
Canberra 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 88 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 19 3332 4344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Oct 22 G0-G1
31 Oct 8 G0
01 Nov 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 29-Oct. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on UT day 30-Oct due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 31-Oct to 01-Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 29-Oct were
mostly normal, with fair conditions observed at mid latitudes.
Normal to fair conditions are expected on 30-Oct due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity. Mostly normal conditions are expected over
31-Oct to 01-Nov.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Oct 82
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 109
Oct 89
Nov 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Oct 80 Near predicted monthly values
31 Oct 90 Near predicted monthly values
01 Nov 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 29-Oct were
near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced in northern Australia.
MUFs were depressed by 15-25% in southern Australian regions.
Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. Ionospheric
scintillation was observed at Darwin over the interval 29/1227-1430UT.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 30-Oct
to 01-Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Oct
Speed: 417 km/sec Density: 6.8 p/cc Temp: 127000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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