[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 22 November 25 issued 2330 UT on 22 Nov 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Nov 23 10:30:50 AEDT 2025


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 NOVEMBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 NOVEMBER - 25 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Nov:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Nov: 119/71


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Nov             24 Nov             25 Nov
Activity     R0, chance R1      R0, chance R1      R0, chance R1
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             125/78             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 22-Nov was R0, with no significant 
solar flares. There are currently five numbered sunspot regions 
on the solar disk. New region AR4291 (S14E67, beta) has shown 
grown in its leading spots, but has remained quiet. All other 
sunspots are stable with little potential for flares. Solar activity 
is expected to be R0 with a chance of R1 over 23-25 Nov. 

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed on UT day 22-Nov. 

S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 22-Nov. 
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 23-25 Nov.

The solar wind environment on UT day 22-Nov was near background levels. 
The solar wind speed ranged from 455 to 377 km/s. The peak total
 interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south
 IMF component range (Bz) was +5 to -4 nT. The solar wind environment
 is expected to be mostly at background levels over 23-25 Nov, 
but may become mildly disturbed due to a recurrent coronal hole by 
the end of the period.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Nov: G0

Estimated Indices 22 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21112122
      Cocos Island         2   11110021
      Darwin               5   22111122
      Townsville           5   11212122
      Learmonth            5   22112122
      Alice Springs        4   22111112
      Gingin               5   22112122
      Canberra             4   21102112
      Kennaook Cape Grim   5   21212112
      Hobart               5   21212112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     2   11002011
      Casey               18   35432233
      Mawson              15   43223243

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   3312 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Nov     5    G0
24 Nov     4    G0
25 Nov    10    G0, chance G1

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic condtions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 22-Nov. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected 
over 23-25 Nov. A recurrent coronal hole may connect with Earth 
late in the period, with G1 periods possible, but this is more 
likely to occur on 26-Nov.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 22-Nov were 
mostly normal, with some mild degradations at low latitudes. 
HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be normal over 
23-25 Nov, although some mild degradations may affect high latitudes 
towards the end of the period due to possible coronal hole connection.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Nov    99

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      104
Nov      89
Dec      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Nov   100    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Nov   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Nov   110    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian 
region on UT day 22-Nov were mostly near predicted values. Sporadic-E 
was common along the east coast of the Australian region during 
local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values 
over 23-25 Nov. Enhancements of 15% are possible. Sporadic-E 
during local night hours may be observed.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Nov
Speed: 439 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:   110000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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