[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 22 May 25 issued 2330 UT on 22 May 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri May 23 09:30:43 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 MAY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 23 MAY - 25 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 May: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 May: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 May 24 May 25 May
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 22-May was at the R0 level.
There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. AR4094 (N20E37, beta), AR4095 (S05W69, beta)
and AR4097 (S13E60, beta) showed spot development over the UT
day but there are currently no regions which are large or which
have complex magnetic characteristics. All other sunspot regions
are stable. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels
over 23-25 May. S0 solar radiation conditions were observed on
22-May. S0 conditions are expected over 23-25 May. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. A northeast directed CME is visible
in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 22/1548UT. This CME is associated
with coronal movement, visible behind the eastern limb in GOES
SUVI and SDO imagery from 22/1505UT. This event is farside and
not geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day 22-May was in
decline and mostly ranged between 450 to 590 km/s and is currently
near 470 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was -5 to +7 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain near
current levels, with a possible slow decline over 23-25 May
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 May: G0
Estimated Indices 22 May : A K
Australian Region 4 22211011
Cocos Island 2 12210010
Darwin 5 22211121
Townsville 4 22211111
Learmonth 4 22211111
Alice Springs 3 22201010
Gingin 3 22201011
Canberra 3 22201011
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 22211011
Hobart 3 22201011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 May :
Macquarie Island 2 21002010
Casey 8 33321121
Mawson 19 34322254
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 May :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 5 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 53 (Unsettled)
Hobart 64 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 May : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12 4333 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 May 10 G0
24 May 8 G0
25 May 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 22-May. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with G1 conditions observed
at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 23-25
May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
24 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
25 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 22-May were
mostly normal to fair with the poorest conditions in the northern
hemisphere. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be
normal to fair over 23-25 May with conditions slowly improving
over the period. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 May 88
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 123
May 113
Jun 111
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 May 90 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
24 May 90 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
25 May 90 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 50 was issued on
21 May and is current for 21-23 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 22-May were near predicted
monthly values during local day with depressions of up to 25%
during local night. Spread F was observed at Hobart, Brisbane
and Darwin during local night hours. Sporadic E was also observed
at Hobart and Cocos Islands during local night hours. MUFs are
expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
over 23-25 May. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 May
Speed: 599 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 218000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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