[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 23 March 25 issued 2330 UT on 23 Mar 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Mar 24 10:30:51 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 MARCH 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 24 MARCH - 26 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Mar: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Mar: 168/122
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Mar 25 Mar 26 Mar
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 170/124 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 23-Mar was R0. Solar region
AR4036 (N07W47, beta) is now decaying. This spot group was the
most notable region on the visible solar disk. Other on disk
regions are currently quite small. There are currently nine numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk. All other sunspots are either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be R0 over
24-26 Mar. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed
on 23-Mar. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over
24-26 Mar. No Earth directed CMEs have been observed. The anticipated
shock arrival on 23-Mar has failed to eventuate and is now not
expected. The solar wind speed on 23-Mar slowly declined due
to the abating influence of a coronal hole wind stream, ranging
between 488 km/sec to 369 km/sec and is currently at 369 km/sec.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8
nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was 2 to -5 nT.
The IMF Bz component was mildly southward during the interval
23/0515-0845UT. A large coronal hole is visible in the southeast
solar quadrant which is now crossing the solar central meridian.
Most of the area of this coronal hole is at a southward latitudinal
location on the Sun which suggests that the bulk of the wind
stream from this hole may pass under the Earth, with wind stream
entry expected from 27-Mar. This coronal hole has less equatorial
area for this solar rotation. In general, solar wind 27 day recurrence
patterns suggest that elevated solar wind conditions may be experienced
from mid 25-Mar to 26-Mar with a further increase over 27-28
Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 23 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 22211121
Cocos Island 5 22211121
Darwin 5 22211112
Townsville 7 22321122
Learmonth 5 22211122
Alice Springs 5 22211122
Gingin 6 22211131
Canberra 6 22321121
Kennaook Cape Grim 6 12322121
Hobart 7 22322121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Mar :
Macquarie Island 14 32533221
Casey 9 33321122
Mawson 20 54332243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 44 (Unsettled)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 35
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 28 5532 4444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Mar 10 G0
25 Mar 16 G0, chance G1
26 Mar 18 G0-G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 23-Mar. The anticipated CME arrival has failed
to eventuate. In the Antarctic region G1 periods were observed
at Macquarie Island and Mawson, with G0 conditions at Casey.
Geomagnetic 27 day recurrence patterns indicate that G1 periods
are likely during the interval 25-28 Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Mar Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 23-Mar were
fair to normal. Degraded HF conditions did not eventuate and
are now not expected. HF radio propagation conditions are expected
to be fair to normal over 24-26 Mar.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Mar 133
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced 30% early in UT day then near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced 30% early in UT day then near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 35% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 127
Mar 117
Apr 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Mar 125 Near predicted monthly values
25 Mar 125 Near predicted monthly values
26 Mar 125 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 30 was issued
on 23 March and is current for 23-24 Mar. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 23-Mar were near predicted
values to 30% enhanced 23/0000-0300UT. Spread-F was observed
in Hobart during local night hours. An anticipated CME arrival
has failed to eventuate. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
values 24-26 Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Mar
Speed: 470 km/sec Density: 8.3 p/cc Temp: 212000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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