[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 22 March 25 issued 2334 UT on 22 Mar 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Mar 23 10:34:45 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 MARCH 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 23 MARCH - 25 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Mar: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Mar: 178/131
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Mar 24 Mar 25 Mar
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 170/124 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 22-Mar was R0. Solar region
AR4036 (N07W34, beta) is growing and may become more magnetically
complex in coming days. Other regions are currently small. Some
minor on disk regions have decayed and new minor solar regions
have rotated onto the disk in the southeast quadrant. There are
currently thirteen numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk.
All other sunspots are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be R0-R1 over 23-25 Mar. S0 solar radiation storm
conditions were observed on 22-Mar. S0 solar radiation storm
conditions are expected over 23-25 Mar. Further analysis of yesterday's
CME directed predominately to the southeast and first visible
at 21/1600UT in LASCO C2 indicates a fast and very faint CME
which may consist more of shockwave than ejected CME plasma.
The modelled CME speed was high at nearly 1500km/sec which may
explain why the CME was almost immediately visible following
the associated on disk dimming activity which lead to the initial
far side assessment for this CME event. In difference imagery
this CME appears as a southeast asymmetric partial halo. A shock
arrival is now expected from this CME/shockwave during the second
half of 23-Mar. However, the induced activity is expected to
be brief due to the low amount of ejected CME plasma which may
be more of a shockwave arrival. A solar filament located at N20E50
erupted at 22/1315UT visible in GONG imagery. No new Earth directed
CMEs have been observed. A northeast non Earth directed CME was
associated with the solar filament eruption in the northeast
solar quadrant. Two other CMEs were observed that could not be
correlated to activity on the solar disk, a northeast CME first
visible from 22/0748UT and a southeast CME first visible from
22/1612UT. The solar wind speed on 22-Mar was moderately elevated
as the effects of a recent indistinct CME transient signature
declined and also due to the influence of a coronal hole wind
stream. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 23 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was 11
to -15 nT. The IMF Bz component was moderately southward during
the interval 22/0000-0200UT and mildly southward during 22/1030-1045UT.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated over 23-Mar
due to the influence of a coronal hole wind stream and a shock
arrival from a glancing blow CME is expected at 23/1100UT +/-
12 hours, with modelling suggesting the solar wind speed may
increase to 600km/sec post shock arrival. A large coronal hole
is visible in the southeast solar quadrant and is approaching
the solar central meridian.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 22 Mar : A K
Australian Region 16 44223432
Cocos Island 14 44123332
Darwin 13 34123332
Townsville 15 34223432
Learmonth 21 55223333
Alice Springs 13 34223332
Gingin 23 45224443
Canberra 16 34223442
Kennaook Cape Grim 19 44224442
Hobart 20 44224443
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Mar :
Macquarie Island 37 44336652
Casey 22 45443332
Mawson 50 75334546
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 18 (Quiet)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 35
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 28 3311 3564
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Mar 40 G1-G2 second half of UT day.
24 Mar 18 G1 early in UT day then G0
25 Mar 10 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 20 was issued on 22 March
and is current for 23 Mar only. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 22-Mar. In the Antarctic
region G1-G3 periods were observed. G1-G2 periods are now expected
for the second half of the UT day 23-Mar due to a glancing blow
from a faint but fast CME. G1 conditions are possible early in
the UT day on 24-Mar, then declining to G0.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Mar Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Mar Normal-fair Normal-poor Normal-poor
24 Mar Normal Poor-fair Poor-fair
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 22-Mar were
fair to normal, with fair conditions observed at middle to high
latitudes. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be
poor for middle to high latitudes for the second half of the
UT day 23-Mar and fair on 24-Mar.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Mar 152
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 127
Mar 117
Apr 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Mar 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
24 Mar 90 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
25 Mar 125 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 22-Mar were near predicted values to 40% enhanced.
Spread-F was observed in Hobart during local night hours. MUFs
are expected to be initially near predicted values to 15% enhanced
on 23-Mar, with degraded conditions expected in the second half
of the UT day due to increased geomagnetic activity from an anticipated
CME arrival. Depressed conditions are possible on 24-Mar if geomagnetic
activity eventuates.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Mar
Speed: 412 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 49700 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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