[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 18 March 25 issued 2330 UT on 18 Mar 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Mar 19 10:30:55 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 MARCH 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 19 MARCH - 21 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Mar: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Mar: 184/137
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Mar 20 Mar 21 Mar
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 185/138 190/143
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 18-Mar was at the R0 level,
with several low C-class flares. There are currently twelve numbered
active regions on the visible solar disk and one unnumbered region.
AR4022 (N08W46, beta), AR4031 (N17W22, beta-gamma) and AR4034
(S17E39, beta-gamma). There are no significantly flare-active
regions on the solar disk. An unnumbered region has recently
rotated onto the solar disk at around N15E65 with beta magnetic
characteristics. All other regions were either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 19-21 Mar.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 18-Mar.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 19-21 Mar.
No geoeffective CMEs were observed on 18-Mar. Solar wind speed
increased on 18-Mar, with a decline at the end of the day. The
wind speed mostly ranged between 350 km/s and 575 km/s. The current
wind speed is around 380 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 12 nT and the north-south IMF component
range was +6 to -10 nT. The solar wind environment is expected
to be near background levels on 19-Mar. An increase in speed
is possible early on 20-Mar due to the arrival of a CME first
observed on 16-Mar. Elevated solar wind speeds are possible on
21-Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 18 Mar : A K
Australian Region 7 22223212
Cocos Island 6 22213210
Darwin 5 21222202
Townsville 7 21223212
Learmonth 8 31223212
Alice Springs 7 22223202
Gingin 8 31223212
Canberra 7 22223221
Kennaook Cape Grim 7 22223212
Hobart 7 22123221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Mar :
Macquarie Island 10 22324320
Casey 12 33332223
Mawson 27 55433344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 14 3332 3433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Mar 10 G0, chance of G1
20 Mar 18 G0-G1
21 Mar 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 18-Mar. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with G1 conditions observed
at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 19-Mar with
a chance of G1 and G0-G1 conditions are expected on 20-Mar due
to an anticipated impact from a CME first observed on 16-Mar.
G0 conditions are expected on 21-Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 18-Mar were
mostly normal. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to
be mostly normal over 19-21 Mar, with a chance of mild degradations
on 20-Mar at high latitudes due to anticipated geomagnetic activity.
Equatorial scintillation is anticipated due to the proximity
to the equinox. Minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Mar 141
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 127
Mar 117
Apr 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Mar 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Mar 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 Mar 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 18-Mar were
near predicted values to enhanced by 20%. Sporadic-E and spread
F were observed at Hobart. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced over 19-21 Mar, with the chance
of some minor degradations on 20-Mar due to possible geomagnetic
activity. Minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Mar
Speed: 400 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 60400 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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