[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 26 June 25 issued 2330 UT on 26 Jun 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Jun 27 09:30:54 AEST 2025


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JUNE 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 27 JUNE - 29 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jun:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jun: 117/69


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Jun             28 Jun             29 Jun
Activity     R0, chance R1      R0, chance R1      R0, chance R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             130/84             135/89

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 26-Jun was R0, with no solar 
flares. There are currently five numbered sunspot regions on 
the solar disk. AR4122 (N13E42, beta) has grown over the past 
day, but is still a relatively small region. All other sunspot 
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected 
to be R0 with a small chance for R1 over 27-29 Jun. 

A large filament near the northwestern solar limb partially erupted 
over the course of the day yesterday, associated with a slow CME 
directed northwest. This CME is not expected to be geoeffective. 
No other CMEs were observed on UT day 26-Jun. 

S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 26-Jun. 
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 27-29 Jun. 

The solar wind environment on UT day 26-Jun was mildly perturbed 
due to ongoing connection to two coronal holes. The solar wind speed 
ranged from 529 to 849 km/s and is currently near 700 km/s. The peak 
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 16 nT and the
 north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +10 to -9 nT. The solar
 wind is expected to be enhanced on 27-Jun, beginning to return to 
background conditions on 28-Jun although still likely to be elevated 
due to the coronal holes.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jun: G0

Estimated Indices 26 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region      14   33323333
      Cocos Island        11   33323222
      Darwin              17   34423333
      Townsville          14   33323333
      Learmonth           17   34323343
      Alice Springs       14   33323333
      Gingin              18   34333343
      Canberra            15   33333333
      Kennaook Cape Grim  15   33333333
      Hobart              15   -3333333    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jun :
      Macquarie Island    38   33356644
      Casey               21   44334433
      Mawson              73   45654677

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jun : 
      Darwin              32   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville          15   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           37   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Alice Springs       25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Gingin             141   (Severe storm)
      Canberra           102   (Major storm)
      Hobart             114   (Major storm)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             24                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              0   2122 3344     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Jun    20    G0-G1, chance G2
28 Jun    17    G0-G1
29 Jun    12    G0

COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 48 was issued on 26 June and 
is current for 26-27 Jun. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Australian region on UT day 26-Jun. G0-G3 geomagnetic 
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. G0-G1 geomagnetic 
conditions are expected over 27-28 Jun due to ongoing coronal 
hole activity. Due to the fast solar wind speeds in particular, 
there may be a chance for G2 today.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jun      Fair           Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair
28 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
29 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on 
UT day 26-Jun, with depressions over South America and some enhancements 
in the northern hemisphere. HF radio propagation conditions are 
expected to be mildly degraded, particularly during local night 
hours, over 27-29 Jun due to ongoing coronal hole activity, but 
improving by the end of the period.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Jun    86

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      94
Jun      109
Jul      107

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Jun    75    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
28 Jun    65    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
29 Jun    65    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian 
region on UT day 26-Jun were near predicted values to 20% depressed. 
Spread-F was observed in Brisbane, Hobart and Perth during local 
night hours. Conditions in Darwin were degraded. MUFs are expected 
to be near predicted values to 20-30% depressed over 27-29 Jun 
due to ongoing coronal hole activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jun
Speed: 427 km/sec  Density:    4.8 p/cc  Temp:   107000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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