[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 25 June 25 issued 2330 UT on 25 Jun 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Jun 26 09:30:53 AEST 2025


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JUNE 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 26 JUNE - 28 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** RED **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jun: R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jun: 117/69


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Jun             27 Jun             28 Jun
Activity     R0, chance R1      R0, chance R1      R0, chance R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             125/78             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 25-Jun was R0, with no solar 
flares. There are currently four numbered sunspot regions on 
the solar disk. AR4120 (N06W20, beta) has shown some fast growth 
over the past day, but is still small and has not produced any 
solar flares yet. Solar activity is expected to be R0 with a 
chance of R1 over 26-28 Jun.

 Some weak plasma emission can be seen from 0448 UT but it is not
 clear whether it came from the frontside. If this is a frontside 
event it may briefly enhance the solar wind within a few days, but
 is not expected to be significant. No other CMEs were observed on 
UT day 25-Jun. 

S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 25-Jun. 
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 26-28 Jun. 

The solar wind on UT day 25-Jun became enhanced late in the day due 
to the connection to the equatorial coronal hole. The solar wind speed 
ranged from 395 to 400 km/s and is currently trending up. The peak total 
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 17 nT and the north-south 
IMF component range (Bz) was +9 to -11 nT, with a sustained period 
of southward Bz towards the end of the day. The solar wind is 
expected to be enhanced due to the coronal holes over 26-28 Jun.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jun: G0

Estimated Indices 25 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   11122233
      Cocos Island         6   11222222
      Darwin               8   12222233
      Townsville           8   12222233
      Learmonth            8   12222233
      Alice Springs        7   11122233
      Gingin               9   11122234
      Canberra             7   01122233
      Kennaook Cape Grim   8   01132233
      Hobart               7   01122233    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     9   00033234
      Casey                8   23222222
      Mawson              20   22322346

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               8   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               9   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary              0   1222 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Jun    20    G0-G1, slight chance G2
27 Jun    17    G0-G1
28 Jun    17    G0-G1

COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 47 was issued on 23 June and 
is current for 24-26 Jun. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
on UT day 25-Jun in the Australian and Antarctic regions. G0-G1 
geomagnetic conditions are expected over 26-28 Jun due to coronal 
hole activity. There may be a slight chance for G2 early in the 
period.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair
27 Jun      Normal-fair    Fair           Fair
28 Jun      Fair           Fair           Fair

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 25-Jun were 
mostly normal in the northern hemisphere with some degradations 
in the southern hemisphere. HF radio conditions are expected 
to be degraded, particularly during local nighttime hours due 
to coronal hole activity.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Jun    71

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      94
Jun      109
Jul      107

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Jun    65    Near predicted values to 20-30% depressed
27 Jun    65    Near predicted values to 20-30% depressed
28 Jun    65    Near predicted monthly values to 20-30% depressed

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian 
region were near predicted values to 30% depressed. Conditions 
in Darwin were degraded. Spread-F was observed in Hobart. MUFs 
are expected to be depressed during local night hours by 20-30% 
and conditions are expected to be degraded over 26-28 Jun due 
to coronal hole activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jun
Speed: 432 km/sec  Density:    6.2 p/cc  Temp:    61100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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