[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 25 June 25 issued 2330 UT on 25 Jun 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Jun 26 09:30:53 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JUNE 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 26 JUNE - 28 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** RED **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jun: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jun 27 Jun 28 Jun
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 125/78 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 25-Jun was R0, with no solar
flares. There are currently four numbered sunspot regions on
the solar disk. AR4120 (N06W20, beta) has shown some fast growth
over the past day, but is still small and has not produced any
solar flares yet. Solar activity is expected to be R0 with a
chance of R1 over 26-28 Jun.
Some weak plasma emission can be seen from 0448 UT but it is not
clear whether it came from the frontside. If this is a frontside
event it may briefly enhance the solar wind within a few days, but
is not expected to be significant. No other CMEs were observed on
UT day 25-Jun.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 25-Jun.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 26-28 Jun.
The solar wind on UT day 25-Jun became enhanced late in the day due
to the connection to the equatorial coronal hole. The solar wind speed
ranged from 395 to 400 km/s and is currently trending up. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 17 nT and the north-south
IMF component range (Bz) was +9 to -11 nT, with a sustained period
of southward Bz towards the end of the day. The solar wind is
expected to be enhanced due to the coronal holes over 26-28 Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 25 Jun : A K
Australian Region 7 11122233
Cocos Island 6 11222222
Darwin 8 12222233
Townsville 8 12222233
Learmonth 8 12222233
Alice Springs 7 11122233
Gingin 9 11122234
Canberra 7 01122233
Kennaook Cape Grim 8 01132233
Hobart 7 01122233
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jun :
Macquarie Island 9 00033234
Casey 8 23222222
Mawson 20 22322346
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 0 1222 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jun 20 G0-G1, slight chance G2
27 Jun 17 G0-G1
28 Jun 17 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 47 was issued on 23 June and
is current for 24-26 Jun. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
on UT day 25-Jun in the Australian and Antarctic regions. G0-G1
geomagnetic conditions are expected over 26-28 Jun due to coronal
hole activity. There may be a slight chance for G2 early in the
period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
27 Jun Normal-fair Fair Fair
28 Jun Fair Fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 25-Jun were
mostly normal in the northern hemisphere with some degradations
in the southern hemisphere. HF radio conditions are expected
to be degraded, particularly during local nighttime hours due
to coronal hole activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jun 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 94
Jun 109
Jul 107
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jun 65 Near predicted values to 20-30% depressed
27 Jun 65 Near predicted values to 20-30% depressed
28 Jun 65 Near predicted monthly values to 20-30% depressed
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were near predicted values to 30% depressed. Conditions
in Darwin were degraded. Spread-F was observed in Hobart. MUFs
are expected to be depressed during local night hours by 20-30%
and conditions are expected to be degraded over 26-28 Jun due
to coronal hole activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jun
Speed: 432 km/sec Density: 6.2 p/cc Temp: 61100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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