[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 23 July 25 issued 2332 UT on 23 Jul 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Jul 24 09:32:22 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JULY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JULY - 26 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jul: 150/105
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jul 25 Jul 26 Jul
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 23-Jul was at the R0 level
with sporadic, low level C class flares. There are currently
six numbered sunspot regions and two unnumbered region visible
on the solar disk. AR4153 (S30E47, beta) showed significant sunspot
growth over the UT day, whilst AR4149 (N17E21, beta) showed growth
in its trailer spots. Two unnumbered regions have recently rotated
onto the solar disk at S11E78 and N09E78 with beta and alpha
magnetic characteristics respectively. All other regions and
either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at
the R0 level, with a chance of R1 over 24-26 Jul. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions were observed on UT day 23-Jul. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions are expected over 24-26 Jul. Multiple faint
CMEs were observed on 23-Jul. A west directed, faint, partial
halo CME visible in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 23/0824UT
was possibly associated with a filament eruption visible in SDO
and GOES SUVI imagery from 24/0300UT at around S10W18. Modelling
indicates this CME presents the chance of a glancing impact on
26-Jul at 0900UT +/- 12 hours. There were two other filament
liftoffs visible on 23-Jul. One from 23/1800UT at around S17E55
and another from 23/1906 at around S29W07. Both visible in SDO,
GOES SUVI and H-Alpha imagery. No associated CMEs are visible
in currently available coronagraph imagery. Further analysis
will be performed when more imagery is available. The solar wind
speed increased on 23-Jul UT day and is currently steady. The
solar wind speed mostly ranged between 430 km/s and 760 km/s
and is currently at around 700 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic
field strength is moderately enhanced. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 20 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +14 to -12 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain elevated on 24-Jul, with the possibility of a slight
decline on 25-Jul in the second half of the UT day. An increase
in the solar wind speed is possible on 26-Jul due to the chance
of a glancing impact from a CME first observed on 23-Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 23 Jul : A K
Australian Region 16 23344233
Cocos Island 10 22233232
Darwin 14 23334233
Townsville 13 23334232
Learmonth 24 33355343
Alice Springs 16 23344233
Gingin 23 33255343
Canberra 16 23245232
Kennaook Cape Grim 17 23245233
Hobart 21 23355233
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jul :
Macquarie Island 25 24355433
Casey 22 44443343
Mawson 68 76534376
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jul :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 55 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 27
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 17 1212 2355
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jul 20 G0-G1
25 Jul 15 G0, chance of G1
26 Jul 15 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 56 was issued on 19 July and
is current for 22-24 Jul. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 23-Jul, with G1 conditions
observed at Learmonth, Gingin, Canberra, Kennaook Cape Grim and
Hobart. G1 conditions were observed at the planetary level. Periods
of G3 conditions were observed at Mawson with G1 conditions observed
at Macquarie Island. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 24-Jul due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects. G0 conditions, with a chance of G1 are expected on 25-26
Jul due to a combination of coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects and the chance of a glancing impact from a CME first
observed on 23-Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 23-Jul were
mostly normal. HF conditions are expected to be normal to fair
for middle to high latitudes over 24-26 Jul due to anticipated
mild geomagnetic activity induced by a coronal hole high speed
wind stream and a possible glancing CME impact on 26-Jul.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jul 110
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 79
Jul 104
Aug 102
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jul 100 Near predicted monthly values
25 Jul 100 Near predicted monthly values
26 Jul 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 23-Jul were mostly near predicted monthly values,
with some mild enhancements in the southern Australian region
during local night hours. Spread F was observed during local
night hours at Hobart, Canberra, Brisbane and Townsville. Sporadic
E was observed at Darwin and slightly at Townsville. MUFs are
expected to be near predicted monthly values over 24-26 Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jul
Speed: 373 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 53100 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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