[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 22 July 25 issued 2352 UT on 22 Jul 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Jul 23 09:52:39 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JULY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JULY - 25 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jul: 145/99
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jul 24 Jul 25 Jul
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 132/86
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 22-Jul was at the R0 level.
There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions and one small
unnumbered region visible on the solar disk. Solar regions AR4153
(S30E60, beta) and AR4150 (S15E30, beta) have shown growth over
the UT day. All other regions are small and either stable or
in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0, chance R1 levels
over 23-25 Jul. There is a chance for an isolated low level R1
flare from AR4149 (N17E35, beta). S0 solar radiation storm conditions
were observed on UT day 22-Jul. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
are expected over 23-25 Jul. No Earth directed CMEs were observed
on UT day 22-Jul. An equatorial coronal hole is visible to the
west of the solar central meridian. The solar wind speed has
increased from late in 22-Jul UT day and is on an increasing
trend. The solar wind speed ranged between 327 km/s and 523 km/s
and is currently at around 450 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic
field strength is moderately enhanced. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 24 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +17 to -14 nT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 22 Jul : A K
Australian Region 7 12022233
Cocos Island 6 02022223
Darwin 11 13132333
Townsville 9 12032333
Learmonth 9 12122333
Alice Springs 9 12122333
Gingin 8 02121234
Canberra 7 12022233
Kennaook Cape Grim 7 02022233
Hobart 7 02022233
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jul :
Macquarie Island 2 01010122
Casey 10 13221234
Mawson 24 03122237
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 11 2111 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jul 19 G0-G1
24 Jul 17 G0-G1
25 Jul 15 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 56 was issued on 19 July and
is current for 22-24 Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian and G0-G3 Antarctic regions on UT day 22-Jul.
A period of planetary G1 conditions were observed on UT day 22-Jul.
G0-G1 conditions are expected over 23-24 Jul and G0, chance G1
on 25-Jul due to coronal hole activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jul Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
24 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 22-Jul were
fair to normal, with fair conditions at high latitudes. HF conditions
are expected to be normal to fair for middle to high latitudes
over 23-24 Jul due to anticipated mild geomagnetic activity induced
by a coronal hole high speed wind stream. Gradually improving
over 25-Jul.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jul 81
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 79
Jul 104
Aug 102
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jul 75 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
24 Jul 75 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
25 Jul 75 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 22-Jul were 20% depressed to near predicted
monthly values. Spread F was observed during local night hours
at Hobart, Townsville, Norfolk and Perth. MUFs are expected to
be generally 15-20% depressed to near predicted monthly values
over 23-25 Jul.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:26%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jul
Speed: 365 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 54300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list