[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 27 February 25 issued 2330 UT on 27 Feb 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Feb 28 10:30:55 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 FEBRUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 FEBRUARY - 02 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Feb: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Feb: 170/124
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Feb 01 Mar 02 Mar
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 160/114 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 27-Feb was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. There are currently six numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and three unnumbered
regions. AR4006 (N17E06, beta-gamma) showed spot development
over the UT day. Three unnumbered sunspot regions have developed
on the visible disk at around N20W35, N16W47 and N26E49, all
these regions have beta magnetic characteristics. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0-R1 levels over 28-Feb to 02-Mar, with a chance of
R2. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on 27-Feb
with the >10MeV proton flux elevated below the S1 threshold and
in decline. S0 conditions are expected on 28-Feb to 02-Mar. Several
CMEs were observed on 27-Feb, but none are considered geoeffective.
An erupting solar filament is visible in SDO, GOES SUVI and H-Alpha
imagery from 27/1748UT at around N30 off the east limb. No associated
CME is visible in currently available coronagraph imagery. Further
analysis will be performed when more imagery becomes available.
The solar wind speed on UT day 27-Feb was steady and elevated.
The wind speed mostly ranged between 530 and 630 km/s and is
currently near 610 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 14 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +11 to -11 nT. Sustained periods of significant
-Bz were observed from 27/0835UT to 27/1030UT, corresponding
to a period of G2 geomagnetic conditions at the global level.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated over 28-Feb
to 02-Mar due to the ongoing current high speed solar wind environment,
coupled with expected coronal hole high speed wind stream effects
from a series of coronal holes approaching a geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 27 Feb : A K
Australian Region 16 33343333
Cocos Island 10 23332222
Darwin 14 33432323
Townsville 19 33443433
Learmonth 19 33343434
Alice Springs 16 33343333
Gingin 19 43343433
Canberra 19 33353333
Kennaook Cape Grim 22 33354433
Hobart 23 34354433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Feb :
Macquarie Island 33 34464543
Casey 31 46553323
Mawson 42 55564453
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 13 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 6 (Quiet)
Gingin 56 (Unsettled)
Canberra 59 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 31
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 13 2323 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Feb 25 G0-G1
01 Mar 25 G0-G1
02 Mar 16 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the
Australian region on UT day 27-Feb, with G1 conditions observed
at Canberra, Kennaook Cape Grim and Hobart. G2 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 28-Feb to 01-Mar due to ongoing high solar wind
speed effects. G0 conditions, with a chance of G1 are expected
on 02-Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Feb Fair Fair Fair-poor
01 Mar Fair Fair Fair-poor
02 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on
UT day 27-Feb. Mostly normal to fair conditions are expected
over 28-Feb to 02-Mar due to anticipated geomagnetic activity.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Feb 129
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 124
Feb 118
Mar 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Feb 120 Near predicted monthly values
01 Mar 110 Near predicted monthly values
02 Mar 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 27-Feb in
the Australian region were near predicted monthly values, with
enhancements of up to 15% in the northern Australian region and
depressions after local dawn in the southern Australian region.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 28-Feb
to 02-Mar, with the chance of mild degradations due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Feb
Speed: 419 km/sec Density: 12.2 p/cc Temp: 151000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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