[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 26 February 25 issued 2330 UT on 26 Feb 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Feb 27 10:30:47 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 FEBRUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 FEBRUARY - 01 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Feb: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Feb: 180/133
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Feb 28 Feb 01 Mar
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 26-Feb was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. There are currently seven numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. No sunspot regions
showed significant spot development on 26-Feb and there are no
magnetically complex regions. All sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1
levels over 27-Feb to 01-Mar, with a chance of R2. S0 solar radiation
conditions were observed on 26-Feb with the >10MeV proton flux
elevated below the S1 threshold and in decline. S0 solar radiation
conditions are expected on 27-Feb to 01-Mar, with a chance of
S1 on 27-Feb. No geoeffective CMEs were observed on 26-Feb. A
northeast directed CME was visible in SOHO imagery from 26/0236UT.
This CME is not considered geoeffective. A disappearing filament
is visible from 26/0601UT at around S04W23 in H-Alpha, GOES SUVI
and SDO imagery. An associated faint, west directed CME is visible
in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 26/0658UT. Modelling suggests
this CME will pass ahead of Earth. An erupting filament is visible
from 26/1439UT at around S25W60 in H-Alpha, GOES SUVI and SDO
imagery. An associated southwest directed CME from 26/1512UT
is visible in SOHO and STEREO-A iamgery. Modelling suggests this
CME will pass ahead of Earth. The solar wind speed on UT day
26-Feb increased, with a sharp rise in speed visible at 26/1246UT.
The wind speed mostly ranged between 330 and 560 km/s and is
currently near 530 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 20 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +16 to -9 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to be elevated on 27-Feb, with a decline possible in the second
half of the UT day. An increase in solar wind speed is expected
on 28-Feb due to a series of coronal holes rotating towards a
geoeffective position. Elevated solar wind speeds are expected
on 01-Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 26 Feb : A K
Australian Region 12 22323333
Cocos Island 9 22323222
Darwin 11 22323332
Townsville 12 22323333
Learmonth 13 32323333
Alice Springs 12 22323333
Gingin 14 32323433
Canberra 12 22323333
Kennaook Cape Grim 12 22323333
Hobart 12 23322333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Feb :
Macquarie Island 22 23354532
Casey 25 35543234
Mawson 17 33434332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 20 (Quiet)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 8 2111 1233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Feb 15 G0, chance of G1
28 Feb 20 G0-G1
01 Mar 16 G0-G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 26-Feb. Mostly G1 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected on 27-Feb, with a chance of G1 due to ongoing strong
IMF conditions. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on
28-Feb to 01-Mar due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Feb Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0010UT 25/02, Ended at 0830UT 25/02
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
01 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on
UT day 26-Feb, with fair conditions at high latitudes in the
southern hemisphere. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected
on 27-Feb, with a chance of degraded conditions at higher latitudes.
Normal to fair conditions are expected over 28-Feb to 01-Mar
due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Feb 124
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 124
Feb 118
Mar 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Feb 130 Near predicted monthly values
28 Feb 120 Near predicted monthly values
01 Mar 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 25 was issued on
25 February and is current for 25-27 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 26-Feb in the Australian region were near predicted
monthly values. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values over 27-Feb to 01-Mar. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Feb
Speed: 372 km/sec Density: 6.1 p/cc Temp: 48700 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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