[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 December 25 issued 2330 UT on 07 Dec 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Dec 8 10:30:49 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 DECEMBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 DECEMBER - 10 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Dec: 194/146
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 190/143 190/143 185/138
COMMENT: On UT day 7-Dec solar activity was R0 with no solar
flares. There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions on
the solar disk. Active region (AR) 4294 (S15W32, beta-gamma-delta)
has strengthened its delta spot, but overall is stable and separating
its magnetic polarities. AR4299 (N23W10, beta-delta) it starting
to show signs of decay. All other sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be R1 with
a chance of R2 over 8-10 Dec.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed on UT day 7-Dec.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 7-Dec,
although an increased in the >10MeV protons was observed in response
to the M8 solar flare on 6-Dec. Mostly S0 solar radiation storm
conditions are expected over 8-Dec, however further solar flares
from AR4299 may cause S1 conditions as it transits the western
side of the solar disk.
On UT day 7-Dec the solar wind environment was steady. The solar
wind speed was on a decline from near 700km/s to near 400km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10nT and the
north-south IMF component range (Bz) was -3 to +7nT. The solar
wind environment is expected to be near background levels on
8-Dec. A CME is expected to arrive early on 9-Dec to cause a
disturbance that is likely to continue into 10-Dec.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 07 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 22222111
Cocos Island 3 22211000
Darwin 5 22222111
Townsville 6 23222111
Learmonth 5 32222100
Alice Springs 4 22222000
Gingin 5 32221101
Canberra 4 22221011
Kennaook Cape Grim 7 23322111
Hobart 7 23321111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Dec :
Macquarie Island 4 23221000
Casey 29 36643212
Mawson 23 44643111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 66 (Active)
Canberra 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 65 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 16 4343 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Dec 8 G0
09 Dec 45 G3
10 Dec 18 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 97 was issued on 6 December
and is current for 9-10 Dec. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region on UT day 7-Dec were G0. Geomagnetic conditions in the
Antarctic region were G0-G2. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on UT day 8-Dec. A CME is expected to arrive early on 9-Dec,
with G3 geomagnetic conditions anticipated after arrival. G0-G1
geomagnetic conditions are expected on 10-Dec as the geomagnetic
field recovers.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Dec Normal Normal Normal
09 Dec Fair Fair Poor
10 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 7-Dec were
mostly normal. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to
be mostly normal on UT day 8-Dec. Conditions are expected to
be degraded on 9-Dec due to anticipated geomagnetic activity,
and begin recovering on 10-Dec.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Dec 146
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 75% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 103
Dec 89
Jan 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Dec 130 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
09 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
10 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 117 was
issued on 6 December and is current for 9-10 Dec. ASWFC SWF HF
Communications Warning 118 was issued on 7 December and is current
for 7-8 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 7-Dec were near predicted values to 30% enhanced.
Sporadic-E was observed in Niue, Norfolk Island and Hobart during
local night hours. MUFs are expected to be enhanced by 20% on
UT day 8-Dec, but likely to trend down to near predicted values
on 9-Dec. Depressions of 20% may begin by local night hours on
9-Dec and into 10-Dec. Nighttime sporadic-E is expected.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Dec
Speed: 648 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 215000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list