[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 30 August 25 issued 2330 UT on 30 Aug 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Aug 31 09:30:49 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 AUGUST 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 31 AUGUST - 02 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Aug: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 1409UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.2 1559UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M2.7 2002UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Aug: 317/283
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Aug 01 Sep 02 Sep
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 220/170 215/165 210/161
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 30-Aug was R1, with an isolated
M2 level solar flare from AR4199 (N05E02, beta) and two M1 flares
from AR4197 (S18W11, beta-gamma-delta). There are currently ten
numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR4197 remains the
most dominant spot, although has been quiet in the past 24 hours.
This region appears to be separating its polarities to reduce
its complexity, although some weak delta spots may be forming
in the trailing end. AR4200 (S08W53, beta) has grown slightly
in the past day, but all other sunspot regions are stable. Solar
activity is expected to be R1-R2 over 31-Aug to 2-Sep.
An asymmetric halo CME was associated with the M2.8 flare at 20:02 UT, and
imagery may suggest there was a weaker shock front or separate
CME ahead of this one. Preliminary analysis suggests these events
are diffuse, but fast, and will be Earth directed. However, further
analysis is required before a forecast can be made.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 30-Aug, however
the >10 MeV protons remain slightly elevated. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions are expected over 31-Aug to 2-Sep.
The solar wind environment on UT day 30-Aug was steady, on a slow and gentle
incline due to a small coronal. The solar wind speed ranged from
344 to 456 km/s currently on a steady trend. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +8 to -6 nT. The solar wind environment is expected
to be near background conditions over 31-Aug to 2-Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 30 Aug : A K
Australian Region 6 11221321
Cocos Island 4 11211211
Darwin 6 22221222
Townsville 7 11222322
Learmonth 7 21221322
Alice Springs 6 12211321
Gingin 6 21211330
Canberra 6 11221321
Kennaook Cape Grim 7 12221331
Hobart 7 12221331
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Aug :
Macquarie Island 5 11121230
Casey 12 33431321
Mawson 8 32322221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2211 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Aug 5 G0
01 Sep 4 G0
02 Sep 4 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed on UT day 30-Aug
in the Australian and Antarctic regions. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 31-Aug to 2-Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Aug Normal Normal Normal
01 Sep Normal Normal Normal
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 30-Aug were
mostly normal, with some weak residual polar cap absorption at
high latitudes. HF radio propagation conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 31-Aug to 2-Sep.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Aug 114
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 88
Aug 96
Sep 93
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Aug 115 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
01 Sep 115 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
02 Sep 115 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 78 was issued on
30 August and is current for 30-31 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 30-Aug were near predicted
values to 25% enhanced. Scintillation was observed in Niue from
0853 to 0916 UT. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values
to 20% enhanced over 31-Aug to 2-Sep. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Aug
Speed: 386 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 81200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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