[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 24 August 25 issued 2330 UT on 24 Aug 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Aug 25 09:30:48 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 AUGUST 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 25 AUGUST - 27 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Aug: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 0836UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Aug: 152/107
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Aug 26 Aug 27 Aug
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 152/107 152/107 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 24-Aug was at the R1 level,
due to an M1.3 flare at 24/0836UT from over the eastern limb.
There are currently six numbered sunspot regions visible on the
solar disk, however analysis was difficult due to lack of imagery.
AR4191 (N13E31, beta) is the largest region on the solar disk.
Newly numbered region AR4194 (N03E15, beta) showed spot development
over the UT day. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels
over 25-27 Aug. Solar proton conditions were enhanced but below
the S1 level on UT day 24-Aug. S0-S1 solar proton conditions
are expected over 25-27 Aug. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
on 24-Aug. A north directed, narrow CME was observed in SOHO
and STEREO-A imagery from 24/0248UT, there is no clear on disk
activity associated with this CME and it is not considered geoeffective.
A northeast directed, narrow CME was oberved in SOHO and STEREO-A
imagery from 24/1036UT, an eruption behind the solar limb is
visible in SDO and GOES SUVI imagery from 24/0936UT and is likely
associated with this CME. This CME is expected to pass behind
the Earth. The solar wind speed on UT day 24-Aug was mostly steady,
ranging between 360 to 450 km/s and is currently near 375 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -4
to +6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be mostly steady
on 25-Aug until a possible increase late in the day due to two
possible glancing CME impacts. A further increase is expected
on 26-27 Aug due to high speed solar wind stream effects from
a northern hemisphere coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 24 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 12100111
Cocos Island 2 12110110
Darwin 4 22210112
Townsville 4 12111112
Learmonth 2 12110110
Alice Springs 2 12100111
Gingin 1 11100010
Canberra 2 12101000
Kennaook Cape Grim 2 12101011
Hobart 2 12101000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Aug :
Macquarie Island 1 12001000
Casey 8 33311112
Mawson 9 34210113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 3222 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Aug 12 G0, chance of G1
26 Aug 20 G0, chance of G1
27 Aug 18 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 24-Aug. G0 geomagnetic conditions,
with a chance of G1 are expected over 25-27 Aug due to a combination
of two possible glancing CME impacts late on 25-Aug and high
speed solar wind stream effects due to a northern hemisphere
coronal hole, expected to be in a geoeffective location over
26-27 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
27 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 24-Aug were
mostly normal. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to
be mostly normal over 25-27 Aug, with possible degradations,
mostly at high latitudes, over 26-27 Aug.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Aug 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 88
Aug 96
Sep 93
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values
26 Aug 80 Near predicted monthly values
27 Aug 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 24-Aug were near predicted monthly values, with
depressions of up to 20% observed in the northern Australian
region during local night. Mild spread F was observed at Hobart,
Perth and Brisbane during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 25-27 Aug, with a chance
of mild depressions on 26-27 Aug due to possible geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Aug
Speed: 458 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 77500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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