[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 18 April 25 issued 2331 UT on 18 Apr 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Apr 19 09:31:07 AEST 2025


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 APRIL 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 19 APRIL - 21 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Apr:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Apr: 156/110


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Apr             20 Apr             21 Apr
Activity     R0-R1              R0-R1              R0-R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            150/105            150/105

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 18-Apr was R0, with no significant 
solar flares. Solar region AR4064 (N10E49, beta-gamma) has shown 
slight growth. Solar region AR4062 (S04E32, beta) appears to 
be in slow decay with increased separation evident. Small solar 
region AR4067 (S02E54, beta) is slightly growing. Other regions 
are small and either stable or in decay. There are currently 
seven numbered sunspots on the solar disk. A large coronal hole 
is visible in the southern solar hemisphere and has started to 
cross the solar central meridian, however most of the area of 
this hole is below solar latitude S30. Solar activity is expected 
to be R0-R1 over 19-21 Apr. S0 solar radiation storm conditions 
were observed on 18-Apr. S0 solar radiation storm conditions 
are expected over 19-21 Apr. No Earth directed CMEs were observed. 
The solar wind environment on UT day 18-Apr was slightly enhanced. 
The solar wind speed was steady and ranged from 503 to 418 km/s 
and is currently at 418 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field 
strength (IMF, Bt) was 12 nT and the north-south IMF component 
range was +7 to -10 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decline 
before increasing over 21-22 Apr due to a wind stream from the 
southern hemisphere coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Apr: G0

Estimated Indices 18 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22221222
      Cocos Island         4   22110220
      Darwin               8   33221222
      Townsville           8   32221223
      Learmonth            9   33211322
      Alice Springs        6   22121222
      Gingin               8   23121322
      Canberra             6   22121222
      Kennaook Cape Grim   8   22222322
      Hobart               9   23222322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    15   23343422
      Casey               10   33331122
      Mawson              30   35432265

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             11   3422 3212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Apr    10    G0
20 Apr     8    G0
21 Apr    18    G0-G1

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic activity was observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 18-Apr. In the Antarctic region G0 conditions 
were observed at Macquarie Island and Casey, with G1-G2 periods 
were observed at Mawson. G0 conditions are expected for 19-20 
Apr with G0-G1 conditions expected on 21-22 Apr due to a coronal 
hole wind stream.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Apr      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: On UT day 18-Apr degraded HF conditions were fair to 
normal. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to mostly 
normal over 19-20 Apr with fair conditions possible on 21-22 Apr 
for middle to high latitudes due to mild geomagnetic activity 
from a coronal hole wind stream.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Apr   116

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Hobart depressed 15-20% after dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      126
Apr      115
May      113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Apr   115    Near predicted monthly values
20 Apr   115    Near predicted monthly values
21 Apr   115    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 40 was issued on 16 
April and is current for 17-19 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Australian region were generally near predicted 
monthly values. Spread F was observed during local night hours 
at Hobart. MUFs at Hobart were depressed 15-20% after local dawn 
this morning and are expected to gradually recover. MUFs are 
generally expected near predicted monthly values over 19-21 Apr.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Apr
Speed: 455 km/sec  Density:   11.4 p/cc  Temp:    45300 K  Bz:   9 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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