[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 17 September 24 issued 2330 UT on 17 Sep 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Sep 18 09:30:57 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 SEPTEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 SEPTEMBER - 20 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Sep: 165/119
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Sep 19 Sep 20 Sep
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 162/116 162/116 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 17-Sep was at the R0 level,
with three low level C-class flares observed. There are currently
six numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3825
(S15E16, gamma-delta) is the largest and most magnetically complex
region on the disk. This region has shown spot growth in its
leader spots whilst its trailer spots have decayed. AR3829 (N12W44,
beta) has exhibited growth in its trailer spots. AR3828 (S12E63,
beta) has shown mild growth in its trailer spots. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0-R1 levels over 18-20 Sep. The solar proton flux was
at the S1 level on UT day 17-Sep, declining to S0 by the end
of the UT day. S0 solar proton conditions are expected over 18-20
Sep, with a chance of S1. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed.
The solar wind speed on UT day 17-Sep decreased, ranging from
455 to 580 km/s and is currently near 495 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 20 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +8 to -18 nT. Sustained periods
of southward IMF conditions were observed throughout the UT day.
The solar wind speed is expected to decline over 18-20 Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Sep: G1
Estimated Indices 17 Sep : A K
Australian Region 27 45355323
Cocos Island 20 44244333
Darwin 25 45255322
Townsville 28 55255322
Learmonth 38 55365434
Alice Springs 29 55355322
Gingin 34 54365433
Canberra 30 45356322
Kennaook Cape Grim 35 45466103
Hobart 44 45467142
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Sep :
Macquarie Island 54 56666532
Casey 21 44344324
Mawson 72 67665456
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 7 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 45
Planetary 72
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 23 3445 4214
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Sep 14 G0-G1
19 Sep 10 G0
20 Sep 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 56 was issued on 17 September
and is current for 17-18 Sep. G1 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 17-Sep. G4 planetary
geomagnetic conditions were observed. Geomagnetic activity was
due to the arrival of a halo CME first observed on 14-Sep. Mostly
G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region,
with an isolated period of G3 observed at Mawson. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 18-Sep as CME effects abate. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 19-20 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0735UT 17/09, Ended at 1425UT 17/09
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 17-Sep were
normal to fair at low to middle latitudes and fair at high latitudes.
Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 18-20 Sep. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Sep 129
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 159
Sep 117
Oct 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Sep 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Sep 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Sep 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 103 was issued on
16 September and is current for 16-18 Sep. ASWFC HF Communications
Warning 104 was issued on 17 September and is current for 17-18
Sep. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region
on UT day 17-Sep were generally near predicted monthly values
to 15-20% enhanced. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local
night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced over 18-20 Sep. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Sep
Speed: 454 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 122000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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