[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 16 September 24 issued 2330 UT on 16 Sep 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Sep 17 09:30:52 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 SEPTEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 SEPTEMBER - 19 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Sep: 170/124
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Sep 18 Sep 19 Sep
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 170/124 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 16-Sep was at the R0 level,
with no significant flaring activity. There are currently five
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and two unnumbered
regions. AR3825 (S15E28, gamma) is the most magnetically complex
region on the disk and has exhibited spot development in its
leader spots. AR3822 (N14W66, beta) has shown development in
its trailer spots. AR3824 (S04W33, beta) has shown mild spot
growth over the UT day. Two unnumbered regions are visible on
the solar disk. The first recently rotated over the eastern limb
near S11E75 (alpha) and is stable. The second is near N15W40
(beta) and has shown mild growth. All other sunspot regions are
either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at
R0-R1 levels over 17-19 Sep. The solar proton flux mildly declined
on UT day 16-Sep, remaining at the S0 level. S0 solar proton
conditions are expected over 17-19 Sep, with a chance of S1.
No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed
on UT day 16-Sep increased, ranging from 415 to 550 km/s and
is currently near 550 km/s. A moderate solar wind shock was observed
at 16/2250UT, indicative of the arrival of a halo CME first observed
on 14-Sep. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 18 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+10 to -13 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated
over 17-19 Sep with a declining trend.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 16 Sep : A K
Australian Region 10 23333212
Cocos Island 9 23333111
Darwin 10 23333112
Townsville 13 23343223
Learmonth 15 33344222
Alice Springs 10 23333112
Gingin 12 23343212
Canberra 11 23333222
Kennaook Cape Grim 11 23333222
Hobart 12 23334212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Sep :
Macquarie Island 24 24464322
Casey 18 45432222
Mawson 36 55554325
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 27
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 20 1543 4343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Sep 25 G1-G2
18 Sep 15 G0, chance of G1
19 Sep 10 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 55 was issued on 14 September
and is current for 15-17 Sep. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 16-Sep. Mostly G0-G1
geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region,
with an isolated period of G2 observed at Macquarie Island. G1-G2
geomagnetic conditions are expected on 17-Sep due to ongoing
CME effects. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 18-19
Sep, with a chance of G1 on 18-Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
18 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 16-Sep were
mostly normal. Mostly fair HF conditions are expected on 17-Sep
due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Conditions are expected
to return to mostly normal over 18-19 Sep. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Sep 127
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 159
Sep 117
Oct 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Sep 110 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to
15%
18 Sep 130 Near predicted monthly values
19 Sep 130 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 102 was
issued on 14 September and is current for 16-17 Sep. ASWFC SWF
HF Communications Warning 103 was issued on 16 September and
is current for 16-18 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in
the Australian region on UT day 16-Sep were generally near predicted
monthly values. Enhancements of 40% were observed in northern
Australia during local night hours. Spread F was observed at
Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values to 15% depressed on 17-Sep due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity. MUFs are expected to recover to near predicted
monthly values over 18-19 Sep. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Sep
Speed: 474 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 121000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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