[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 19 May 24 issued 2330 UT on 19 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 20 09:30:46 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 MAY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 20 MAY - 22 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 May: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.9 1344UT possible lower European
M2.5 1756UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.6 2159UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 May: 201/153
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 May 21 May 22 May
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 200/152 200/152 200/152
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 19-May was at the R1 level
due to three low level M-class flares, the largest of which was
an M2.5 flare at 19/1756UT produced by AR3685 (S14E31, beta-delta).
There are currently nine numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. AR3685 is the largest and most magnetically complex
region on the disk and has exhibited spot development over the
UT day, particularly in its intermediate spots. AR3679 (S12W19,
beta-gamma) has shown growth in its trailer spots. AR3683 (S23W56,
beta) and AR3684 (S06E13, beta) have both shown growth in their
leader spots. AR3686 (S08E43, beta) has exhibited spot development
in its trailer spots. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels
over 20-22 May. Several CMEs were observed, but none are considered
geoeffective. A low velocity southward CME was observed, visible
in STEREO-A coronagraph imagery at 19/0123UT. This CME is associated
with a filament eruption first observed at 18/2048UT. Modelling
indicates this CME is not geoeffective. Two filament eruptions
were observed on UT day 19-May, the first at 19/1408UT near N31W27,
the second at 19/1530UT near N24W60. A northeast-directed CME
was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from 19/1709UT,
likely associated with the first filament eruption. Modelling
indicates this CME does not contain an Earth-directed component.
No CME was observed in association with the second filament eruption.
The solar wind speed on UT day 19-May was mostly stable, ranging
from 365 to 430 km/s and is currently near 405 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -9 nT. A sustained
interval of southward IMF conditions was observed from 19/1200-1800UT.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain near background levels
over 20-22 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 May: G0
Estimated Indices 19 May : A K
Australian Region 4 12122120
Cocos Island 3 12111120
Darwin 5 12122121
Townsville 7 12223221
Learmonth 5 12122220
Alice Springs 3 11122110
Gingin 5 12113220
Canberra 3 01122111
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 01123120
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 May :
Macquarie Island 6 01133220
Casey 6 22222121
Mawson 15 24322252
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 15 3434 4322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 May 8 G0
21 May 8 G0
22 May 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 19-May. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 20-22 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 19-May were
mostly normal. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over
20-22 May. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 May 149
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 125
May 114
Jun 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 May 145 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 May 145 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
22 May 145 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 54 was issued on
19 May and is current for 20-22 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 19-May were near predicted monthly values to
25% enhanced in Northern Australia. Spread F was observed at
Hobart during local night hours. Ionospheric scintillation was
observed at Darwin and Weipa from 19/1142-1610UT. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 20-22
May. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 May
Speed: 412 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 48000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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