[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 18 May 24 issued 2330 UT on 18 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 19 09:30:50 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 MAY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 19 MAY - 21 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 May: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 May: 194/146
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 May 20 May 21 May
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 195/147 200/152 200/152
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 18-May was at the R0 level,
with no significant flaring activity. There are currently nine
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3679 (S12W05,
beta-gamma) is the most magnetically complex region on the disk
and has shown slight growth in its intermediate spots. AR3685
(S14E46, beta) is the largest region on the disk and has exhibited
spot development in its intermediate spots. AR3682 (N18E10, beta)
has shown spot development over the UT day. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0-R1 levels over 19-21 May. Several CMEs were observed,
but none are considered geoeffective. A filament eruption was
observed, visible in H-alpha imagery near S45E15 at 18/2048UT.
Any subsequent associated CME will be analysed once coronagraph
imagery becomes available. The solar wind speed on UT day 18-May
decreased, ranging from 380 to 470 km/s and is currently near
390 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 12 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+2 to -9 nT. Several intervals of sustained southward IMF conditions
were observed over the first half of the UT day. The solar wind
speed is expected to remain near background levels over 19-21
May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 May: G0
Estimated Indices 18 May : A K
Australian Region 8 33223111
Cocos Island 5 23221110
Darwin 7 33222111
Townsville 9 33223112
Learmonth 8 33223110
Alice Springs 6 33222100
Gingin 10 33233211
Canberra 7 22233110
Kennaook Cape Grim 8 32233210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 May :
Macquarie Island 16 33354300
Casey 7 33221111
Mawson 32 65533334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 28 2221 4565
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 May 6 G0
20 May 6 G0
21 May 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 18-May. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G2 observed
at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 19-21
May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 May Normal Normal Normal
20 May Normal Normal Normal
21 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 18-May were
mostly normal. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over
19-21 May. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 May 156
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20-55% over the UT day.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 125
May 114
Jun 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 May 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 May 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 May 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 18-May were
near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced in Northern Australia.
Spread F was observed at Hobart and Canberra during local night
hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced over 19-21 May. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 May
Speed: 410 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 79700 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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