[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 01 June 24 issued 2330 UT on 01 Jun 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
ASWFC
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Jun 2 09:30:41 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JUNE 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 02 JUNE - 04 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jun: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1.4 0848UT probable all Mid East/Indian
X1.0 1836UT probable all East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jun: 179/132
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun
Activity R2-R3 R2-R3 R2-R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 185/138 185/138
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 01-Jun was at the R3 level
due to an X1.4 flare at 01/0848UT and an X1.0 flare at 01/1836UT.
Both R3 level flares were produced by AR3697 (S18E16, beta-gamma-delta).
There are currently nine numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3697 is the largest
and most magnetically complex region on the disk. This region
has shown some decay in its leader spots and mild development
in its trailer spots. AR3691 (N26W28, beta-gamma) has decayed.
AR3698 (N23E13, beta) and AR3699 (N04W16, beta) have both exhibited
spot growth over the UT day. AR3695 (N27W14, beta) has shown
spot development. Newly numbered regions AR3700 (S04W34, beta)
and AR3701 (S04E34, beta) recently appeared on the solar disk
and have both exhibited spot development. An unnumbered region
is visible rotating over the eastern limb at N16 and appears
stable. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at R2-R3 levels over 02-04 Jun.
A halo CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery
from 01/1912UT. This CME is likely associated with the X1.0 flare
from AR3697. Preliminary modelling indicates this CME is Earth-directed,
with an arrival on 04-Jun at 06:00UT +/- 12 hours, however further
analysis will be conducted once additional coronagraph imagery
becomes available. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been observed.
The solar wind speed on UT day 01-Jun mildly declined, ranging
from 330 to 355 km/s and is currently near 340 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +3 to -4 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to remain at background levels over 02-03
Jun, before increasing on 04-Jun due to the arrival of a halo
CME first observed on 01-Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 01 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 10101100
Cocos Island 2 10210100
Darwin 1 10101100
Townsville 2 11101101
Learmonth 3 10312100
Alice Springs 1 11101100
Gingin 2 20102100
Canberra 1 10002100
Kennaook Cape Grim 2 10012100
Hobart 1 10002100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jun :
Macquarie Island 2 10202100
Casey 3 22111100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A
Fredericksburg
Planetary
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A K
Fredericksburg
Planetary 3522 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jun 8 G0
03 Jun 6 G0
04 Jun 28 G1-G2
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 01-Jun. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 02-03 Jun. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions are
expected on 04-Jun due to the arrival of a halo CME first observed
on 01-Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jun Normal-fair Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Jun Normal Normal Normal
04 Jun Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 01-Jun were
mostly normal, with fair conditions at high latitudes. Mostly
normal HF conditions are expected over 02-03 Jun. Fair to poor
HF conditions are expected on 04-Jun due to anticipated geomagnetic
activity. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jun 113
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 121
Jun 116
Jul 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jun 105 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jun 105 Near predicted monthly values
04 Jun 90 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 59 was issued on
31 May and is current for 1-3 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 01-Jun were generally
near predicted monthly values, with northern Australian region
MUFs 25% depressed during local night hours. Spread F was observed
at Hobart and Canberra during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 02-04 Jun, with depressions
of 15% on 04-Jun due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Shortwave
fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 May
Speed: 358 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 37000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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