[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 31 May 24 issued 2330 UT on 31 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
ASWFC
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Jun 1 09:30:40 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 MAY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 01 JUNE - 03 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 May: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 1120UT possible lower European
X1.1 2203UT probable all East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 May: 179/132
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun
Activity R2, chance R3 R2, chance R3 R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 185/138 185/138
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 31-May was at the R3 level
due to an X1.1 flare at 31/2203UT from AR3697 (S18E29, beta-gamma-delta).
There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. AR3697 is the most magnetically complex region
and has shown mild growth in its intermediate spots whilst its
leader spots have shown some decay. AR3691 (N26W15, beta-gamma)
has shown decay in its intermediate spots. AR3698 (N23E26, beta)
has exhibited rapid spot development over the UT day. Newly numbered
AR3699 (N04W03, beta) recently appeared on the disk and has shown
spot growth. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in
decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R2 level over
01-03 Jun, with a chance of R3. No Earth-directed CMEs have been
observed. A large filament extending from S08W10 to S40E28 is
currently crossing the central meridian. This filament has shown
some signs of instability and will be monitored for a potential
eruption. The solar wind speed on UT day 31-May mildly declined,
ranging from 330 to 375 km/s and is currently near 340 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +1 to -8
nT. A sustained period of southward IMF conditions was observed
from 31/0202-0510UT. The solar wind speed is expected to increase
over 01-03 Jun due to a possible component CME arrival on 01-Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 May: G0
Estimated Indices 31 May : A K
Australian Region 7 23212311
Cocos Island 4 23210200
Darwin 7 33112212
Townsville 9 33212312
Learmonth 8 33212301
Alice Springs 5 23202201
Gingin 7 23202311
Canberra 7 23213210
Kennaook Cape Grim 8 23213311
Hobart 8 23213311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 May :
Macquarie Island 15 14335310
Casey 8 33211311
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9 2111 1333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jun 18 G0, chance of G1
02 Jun 10 G0
03 Jun 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 31-May. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Macquarie Island. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 01-03 Jun, with a chance of G1 on 01-Jun due to
a weak glancing blow from a CME first observed on 29-May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 May Normal-fair Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
02 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 31-May were
mostly normal, with fair conditions at high latitudes. Mostly
normal HF conditions are expected over 01-03 Jun. Slightly degraded
HF conditions may be experienced on 01-Jun at middle to high
latitudes. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 May 122
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 125
May 114
Jun 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jun 115 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jun 115 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jun 115 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 31-May were generally near predicted monthly
values, with northern Australian region MUFs 15% depressed during
local night hours. Spread F was observed at Hobart and Canberra
during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values over 01-03 Jun. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 May
Speed: 353 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 46700 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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