[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 30 July 24 issued 2330 UT on 30 Jul 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Jul 31 09:30:44 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JULY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JULY - 02 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jul: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.7 0103UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.5 0629UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.5 1628UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.9 1920UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M9.5 1938UT probable lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jul: 220/170
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Jul 01 Aug 02 Aug
Activity R1-R3 R1-R3 R1-R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 210/161 210/161 205/156
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 30-Jul was R2. The largest
flare of the day was M9.5 from a new region AR3772 (S25E63, beta-gamma).
Five other low-level M-class flares were also observed today;
predominantly from AR3762 (S10W71, beta-gamma) which appeared
to cause sympathetic flaring from nearby AR3766 (S07W25, beta-gamma)
for all of these events. There are currently eleven numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk. Almost all numbered sunspots
have shown some kind of growth over the past day. Notably complex
regions include AR3765 (S11W20, beta-gamma-delta), AR3770 (N07W19,
beta-delta) and AR3772, however most regions appear to hold flaring
potential. Solar activity is expected to be R1-R3 over 31-Jul
to 02-Aug.
>From 30/1730 UT some coronal dimming and structural
change can be observed near AR3770. There may have possibly been
a weak CME associated with this event, as a faint partial halo
can be seen from 1800 UT, but this is still under analysis. No
other geoeffective CMEs were observed today.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day
30-Jul. S0-S1 solar radiation storm conditions are expected
over 31-Jul to 02-Aug.
The solar wind on UT day 30-Jul was disturbed, due to at least
one CME arrival, likely the asymmetrical halo from 27-Jul. The
shock arrival was 29/2340 UT and the peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) reached 18 nT. The north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +13 to -12 nT. A sustained period of southward
Bz was observed. The solar wind speed peaked at 515 km/s and
is now currently declining and near 400 km/s. The solar wind
is expected to be disturbed over 31-Jul and 01-Aug due to several
more CME impacts, then easing by 02-Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jul: G1
Estimated Indices 30 Jul : A K
Australian Region 16 34352311
Cocos Island 11 34232310
Darwin 14 34342312
Townsville 21 45352312
Learmonth 22 35353421
Alice Springs 17 35342312
Gingin 18 34352421
Canberra 16 34352311
Kennaook Cape Grim 18 34352411
Hobart 18 34352411
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jul :
Macquarie Island 36 24673320
Casey 15 44332322
Mawson 58 58543354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 38
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2213 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Jul 35 G1-G2, chance G3
01 Aug 23 G1-G2
02 Aug 12 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 37 was issued on 29 July and
is current for 29-31 Jul. On UT day 30-Jul, the Australian geomagnetic
index reached G1 and the Antarctic geomagnetic index reached
a maximum of G4 in Mawson. The planetary geomagnetic index reached
G1. This was due to the arrival of a CME from 27-Jul. Geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be G1-G2 with a slight chance for
G3 on 31-Jul, G1-G2 on 01-Aug and easing to a chance of G1 on
02-Aug due to numerous expected CME arrivals.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 30-Jul were
mostly normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be normal to mildly degraded over 31-Jul to 02-Aug, with the
most notable degradations likely during local night hours. Shortwave
fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jul 135
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 120
Jul 118
Aug 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Jul 125 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
01 Aug 120 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
02 Aug 125 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 80 was issued
on 28 July and is current for 31 Jul to 1 Aug. ASWFC SWF HF Communications
Warning 82 was issued on 29 July and is current for 30-31 Jul.
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region were
near predicted values to 25% enhanced. Sporadic E was observed
in Canberra and Norfolk Island during local night hours. Scintillation
was observed in Weipa between 29/2209 and 2348 UT. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted values to 10-15% depressed over 31-Jul to
02-Aug due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts
are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jul
Speed: 354 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 53500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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