[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 29 July 24 issued 2330 UT on 29 Jul 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Jul 30 09:30:46 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JULY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JULY - 01 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jul: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1.5 0237UT probable all E. Asia/Aust.
M1.0 0520UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.6 1222UT possible lower European
M8.7 1255UT probable lower European
M4.2 1446UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M6.4 1957UT probable lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jul: 223/173
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jul 31 Jul 01 Aug
Activity R1-R3 R1-R3 R1-R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 215/165 210/161 210/161
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 29-Jul reached R3, with an
X1.5 class solar flare at 29/0236 UT from sunspot region AR3766
(S07W14, beta-gamma). Additional to the X flare were several
R2 flares from AR3762 (S10W60, beta-gamma) and a new region currently
not yet in sight on the eastern limb. There are currently nine
numbered sunspots on the disk, plus the new unnumbered region
on the eastern limb. Sunspot analysis on UT day 29-Jul was complex,
with at least five regions changing rapidly and increasing in
magnetic complexity and size: AR3765 (S11W06, beta-gamma), AR3766,
AR3767 (S09E04, beta-gamma), AR3768 (S16W42, beta) and AR3770
(N07W06, beta-delta). Most sunspots near the solar equator appear
to have a high potential for solar flares, with AR3765 being
the most likely candidate. Solar activity over 30-Jul to 01-Aug
is expected to be R1-R3.
CME activity on UT day 29-Jul was complex and many CMEs were observed.
Associated with the M8.6 flare from AR3762 was an associated CME,
and analysis suggests this event will have an impact on late 01-Jul.
Otherwise, no other CMEs today are expected to be geoeffective.
S0 solar radiation storm events were observed on UT day 29-Jul.
S0-S1 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 30-Jul to 01-Aug.
The solar wind environment on UT day 29-Jul was near background levels.
The solar wind speed was on a slight decline from near 400 to 300 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -5 nT. The solar wind
is expected to be disturbed over 30-Jul to 01-Aug, with up to 7 CME impacts
over this period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 29 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 21020011
Cocos Island 3 22120010
Darwin 2 21010012
Townsville 6 32121112
Learmonth 4 31120011
Alice Springs 4 31120011
Gingin 3 31020011
Canberra 3 11031011
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 11031011
Hobart 3 11031011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jul :
Macquarie Island 8 11052010
Casey 7 33222111
Mawson 19 32323226
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 2121 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jul 50 G2-G3
31 Jul 45 G1-G2
01 Aug 30 G1-G2
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 37 was issued on 29 July and
is current for 29-31 Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 29-Jul. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctica region, with isolated
periods of G1-G2 in Macquarie Island and Mawson. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to be complex over 30-Jul to 01-Aug, with
up tp 7 CMEs expected to impact the Earth. G2-G3 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 30-Jul. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions
are then expected to continue over 31-Jul and 01-Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jul Normal-fair Fair Fair
31 Jul Fair Fair Fair-poor
01 Aug Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 29-Jul were
generally normal, with some mild degradations during local night
hours. HF radio communication conditions are expected to become
degraded over 30-Jul to 01-Aug due to anticipated geomagnetic
activity from multiple CMEs. Conditions are expected to be the
most degraded during local night hours and at high latitudes.
High latitude scintillation is possible. Shortwave fadeouts are
probable. There is a chance for polar cap absorption (PCA).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jul 138
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 120
Jul 118
Aug 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jul 100 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
31 Jul 90 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
01 Aug 90 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 80 was issued
on 28 July and is current for 31 Jul to 1 Aug. ASWFC SWF HF Communications
Warning 82 was issued on 29 July and is current for 30-31 Jul.
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 29-Jul were near
predicted values in the Australian region. Sporadic E was observed
at Cocos Islands during local night and dawn hours. MUFs are
expected to be degraded over 30-Jul to 01-Aug due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity from numerous CME arrivals. There is a chance
for polar cap absorption (PCA) to affect high latitudes. Shortwave
fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jul
Speed: 398 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 64600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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