[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 27 July 24 issued 2333 UT on 27 Jul 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Jul 28 09:33:19 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JULY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JULY - 30 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jul: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4.2 0237UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M3.1 0547UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.0 1041UT possible lower European
M2.7 1806UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M3.4 1839UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jul: 204/155
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jul 29 Jul 30 Jul
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 190/143
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 27-Jul was R1. Solar region
AR3766(S05E17, beta-gamma) produced the M4.2 flare. Solar region
AR3762(S12W26, beta-gamma-delta) produced the M3.1 and M3.4 flares.
Solar region AR3767(S09E32, beta-gamma) produced the M2.0 flare.
Solar region AR3765(S11E19, beta-gamma-delta) produced the M2.7
flare. Solar region AR3762 trailer spots have decayed and the
leader spots have reconfigured and developed. A small solar region
AR3768(S17W09, beta) has rapidly emerged to the east of AR3762.
In the group of regions in the southeast solar quadrant region
AR3765 has shown significant development, AR3767 has shown the
development of small spots and AR3766 initially showed decay
then growth toward the end of the UT day. Solar flare activity
is expected to be R1, chance R2 over 28-30 Jul. Earth-directed
CMEs were observed on 27-Jul. A reasonably fast northeast directed
CME was observed in LASCO C2 from 27/0448UT. Though appearing
as a asymmetric halo CME the expanding westward portion of this
CME may be more shock front. This CME may be associated with
the M4.2 flare at 27/0237UT but the apparent speed of the CME
and the long delay time between flare maximum and first observation
of the CME is perhaps inconsistent. Also, there is a lack of
significant on disk plasma motion around AR3766 at the time of
the flare, reducing confidence with this pairing. Assuming the
events are associated a model run was initiated and results show
a glancing blow arrival at 29/2000UT +/- 12 hours. A higher confidence
pairing of the M3.1 flare with a slower northwest CME first visible
in LASCO C2 from 27/0636UT was made and a subsequent model run
shows a CME arrival on 30-Jul at 1200UT +/- 12 hours. S0 solar
radiation storm conditions were observed on 27-Jul. S0 solar
radiation storm conditions are expected over 28-30 Jul. The solar
wind speed on UT day 27-Jul slowly declined, ranging from 390
to 486 km/sec and is currently at 390 km/sec. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south
IMF component range (Bz) was +6 to -7 nT. The IMF Bz component
was mildly southward during the interval 27/0400-1330UT. The
solar wind is expected to be generally steady for 28-Jul and
early on 29-Jul becoming variable at times due to the possible
arrival of weak glancing blows from recent CMEs. A low confidence
glancing blow arrival from the northeast M4.2/CME is possible
on 29-Jul 2000UT +/12 hours and a high confidence arrival of
the M3.1/CME northwest directed CME is expected 30-Jul at 1200UT
+/- 12 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 27 Jul : A K
Australian Region 6 12232210
Cocos Island 4 12222100
Darwin 5 22122111
Townsville 7 22232211
Learmonth 6 22223210
Alice Springs 5 12232110
Gingin 6 22223210
Canberra 5 12232110
Kennaook Cape Grim 6 12232211
Hobart 6 12132211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jul :
Macquarie Island 12 01354200
Casey 7 23222112
Mawson 16 34433223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 27 4643 3432
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jul 13 G0, chance G1
29 Jul 18 G0-G1, chance G2 late in UT day
30 Jul 40 G1-G2
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 27-Jul. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
Antarctica, with isolated period of G1 observed at Macquarie
Island. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 28
Jul, with a slight chance of G1. G1, chance G2 conditions expected
late in the UT day on 29-Jul, increasing to G1-G2 conditions
on 30-Jul due to two recent CME events on 27-Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jul Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
30 Jul Normal Fair-poor Poor
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 27-Jul were
mostly fair to normal. HF radio communication conditions are
expected to be fair to normal for 28-Jul, becoming degraded for
middle to high latitudes from late 29-Jul and on 30-Jul due to
anticipated CME arrivals. Isolated minor fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jul 130
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 120
Jul 118
Aug 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jul 130 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
29 Jul 120 Near predicted monthly values
30 Jul 100 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 27-Jul were
near predicted values in the Australian region. Spread F was
observed at Hobart and Niue during local night hours. Ionospheric
equatorial scintillation was observed at Niue during the interval
27/0655-0940UT. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values
to 15% enhanced over 28-29 Jul. MUFs may become 15% depressed
on 30-Jul and on 01-Aug due to anticipated geomagnetic activity
induced from recent CMEs. Isolated minor fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.70E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jul
Speed: 523 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 168000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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