[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 26 July 24 issued 2330 UT on 26 Jul 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Jul 27 09:30:45 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JULY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JULY - 29 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jul: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.7 0442UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jul: 176/130
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jul 28 Jul 29 Jul
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 165/119 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 26-Jul was R1, with an isolated
M1 solar flare from AR3761(S10W80, beta). This small region is
about to rotate off disk. There are currently ten numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk. Solar region AR3762(S12W12, beta-gamma)
is currently the largest region on the visible solar disk and
has shown decay in its trailers and development in some of its
leader spots. This region produced C class flare activity. In
the southeast solar quadrant a group of solar regions AR3765(S11E36,
beta), AR3766(S22E37, beta) and AR3767(S09E48, beta-gamma) are
growing. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 over 27-29 Jul. A small
7 degree long solar filament located at S25W08 erupted over the
interval 26/1900-2000UT. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
on 26-Jul. Two very narrow west directed CMEs were observed in
LASCO imagery from 26/0312UT and 26/0948UT. These CMEs could
not be correlated to on disk activity and are currently assumed
to be associated with either solar limb or far side activity.
No CME appeared associated with the small filament eruption.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on 26-Jul.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 27-29 Jul.
The solar wind speed gradually increased on 26-Jul from near
450 to 600 km/s during the interval 26/0000-0500UT and is currently
near 500km/sec. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 16 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz)
was +8 to -13 nT. The solar wind IMF Bz component showed an interval
of oscillation 26/0000-0240UT followed by a southward interval
26/0325-0520UT. The increase in wind speed and later drop in
density implies a coronal hole wind stream, though none appears
currently evident on the solar disk west of the solar central
meridian, whilst the interval of oscillation of the IMF Bz component
early in the UT day possibly suggests a solar sector boundary
crossing, though the solar wind toward and way ecliptic plane
magnetic field vector angle does not show a sustained change
in orientation following the oscillating Bz interval. The solar
wind is expected to remain enhanced for today with a slight declining
trend and is expected to be somewhat disturbed at times during
27-29 Jul due to the possible arrival of weak glancing blows
from recent CMEs.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 26 Jul : A K
Australian Region 13 34332322
Cocos Island 11 34322221
Darwin 12 34322322
Townsville 17 35432322
Learmonth 19 35433332
Alice Springs 13 34332321
Gingin 15 44422322
Canberra 13 34332322
Kennaook Cape Grim 13 34332322
Hobart 15 34332422
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jul :
Macquarie Island 32 35444642
Casey 13 34332232
Mawson 38 46543355
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 26
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 2101 2234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jul 16 G0, chance G1
28 Jul 13 G0, slight chance G1
29 Jul 13 G0, slight chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 26-Jul, with an isolated period of G1 observed
at Townsville and Learmonth. The planetary Kp reached G1 during
the period 26/03-06UT. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
Antarctica, with isolated periods of G1 and G2 observed at Macquarie
Island and Mawson. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 27-29 Jul, with periods of G1 conditions possible due to
weak CME glancing blows.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jul Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jul Normal Fair-normal Fair
28 Jul Normal Fair-normal Fair
29 Jul Normal Fair-normal Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 26-Jul were
mostly fair to normal, with fair conditions at high latitudes
due to a mild increase in geomagnetic activity. HF radio communication
conditions are expected to be be similar over 27-29 Jul, with
mild degradations at times for middle to high latitudes particularly
during local night hours. Isolated minor fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jul 145
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 120
Jul 118
Aug 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jul 130 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
28 Jul 130 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
29 Jul 130 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 79 was issued on
26 July and is current for 26-27 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 26-Jul were near predicted values to 20% enhanced
in the Australian region. Strong spread F was observed at Hobart
during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
values to 15% enhanced over 27-29 Jul. Isolated minor fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jul
Speed: 335 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 88200 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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