[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 29 April 24 issued 2330 UT on 29 Apr 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 30 09:30:49 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 APRIL 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 30 APRIL - 02 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Apr: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.5 0048UT possible lower West Pacific
M3.7 0111UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Apr: 138/92
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Apr 01 May 02 May
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 130/84 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 29-Apr was R1, with two M-class
level flares. AR3654 (S06W48, beta-delta) is currently the only
significant region on the disk and was responsible for M2 and
M3 solar flares. AR3654 has shown some change in the past day,
but appears to have undergone overall decay. There are three
other numbered sunspots on the disk, all of which are either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 over
30-Apr to 02-May.
Several weak CMEs were observed on UT day 29-Apr.
Most can be attributed to either limb or farside events, however
a southwest directed CME that can be seen from 29/0736 UT is
likely associated with some weak flare activity near AR3654.
This CME is not expected to be significantly geoeffective. No
other noteworthy CMEs were observed.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT
day 29-Apr. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are
expected over 30-Apr to 02-May.
The solar wind environment on UT day 29-Apr was generally stable,
although on a slight decline as Earth exits a coronal hole wind stream.
The solar wind speed ranged between 400-500 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -2 nT. The solar wind is expected
to continue on a slow decline into background conditions over
30-Apr and into 01-02 May. A long and thin coronal hole mentioned
in yesterday's report appears to have decayed, although may have
a weak influence at the end of the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 29 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 21111021
Cocos Island 2 11110120
Darwin 5 22201122
Townsville 4 21111122
Learmonth 3 21210120
Alice Springs 2 21100021
Gingin 2 21100021
Canberra 3 11111021
Kennaook Cape Grim 2 11111011
Hobart 2 11111011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Apr :
Macquarie Island 2 11211010
Casey 8 33321121
Mawson 7 12311132
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 4211 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Apr 8 G0
01 May 8 G0
02 May 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region and Antarctic region on UT day 29-Apr. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 30-Apr to 02-May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 29-Apr were
generally normal with some mild degradations near high latitudes
during local night hours. Equatorial scintillation was observed
during local night hours. HF radio communication conditions are
expected to be mostly normal over 30-Apr to 02-May, although
the mildly degraded conditions in the high latitudes may persist.
Equatorial scintillation may persist. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Apr 119
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 120
Apr 114
May 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Apr 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
01 May 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
02 May 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 42 was issued on
27 April and is current for 28-30 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 29-Apr were generally near predicted values
to 25% enhanced. Mild spread-F was observed at most southern
Australian sites during local midnight hours. Scintillation was
observed at Weipa between 29/0720-1422 UT. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted values over 30-Apr to 02-May, with mild
enhancements possible. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Apr
Speed: 416 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 96300 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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