[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 28 April 24 issued 2330 UT on 28 Apr 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 29 09:30:55 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 APRIL 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 29 APRIL - 01 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Apr: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Apr: 140/94
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Apr 30 Apr 01 May
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 28-Apr was R0. There are currently
seven numbered sunspots on the visible solar disk. AR3654 (S06W37,
beta-gamma-delta) is the largest and most magnetically complex
region on the solar disk and has shown continued rapid growth
over UT day 28-Apr. This region produced two C-class flares over
the UT day. All other sunspot regions are either stable or decaying.
Solar activity over 29-Apr to 01-May is expected to be at the
R1 level, with a chance of R2. A south directed CME was observed
at around 28/0328 UT in SOHO imagery. This CME was the result
of an erupting filament near the solar limb and is not expected
to be geo-effective. No other geo-effective CMEs were observed.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on 28-Apr.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 29-Apr
to 01-May. Solar wind speed on UT day 28-Apr ranged from 385
to 520 km/s and is currently at around 480 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south
IMF component range (Bz) was +6 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed
is currently slightly enhanced due to a coronal hole wind stream.
A long thin coronal hole is just crossing the solar central meridian
in the northern solar hemisphere extending in solar latitude
from N50 to S20. This hole is expected to increase the solar
wind speed from around 01-May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 28 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 21110001
Cocos Island 2 22110000
Darwin 2 -1210002
Townsville 5 31211012
Learmonth 3 22211001
Alice Springs 2 21200001
Gingin 3 22210000
Canberra 1 21000001
Kennaook Cape Grim 2 21100001
Hobart 2 21100001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Apr :
Macquarie Island 1 22000000
Casey 8 33331011
Mawson 12 43321204
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12 3311 4332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Apr 10 G0
30 Apr 8 G0
01 May 12 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 28-Apr. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 29-Apr to 01 May. With a change of G1 on 01-May
due to coronal hole high speed wind streams.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were generally normal
to fair on 28-Apr. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 29-Apr to 01-May, with ongoing mildly
degraded conditions at high latitudes. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Apr 127
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 120
Apr 114
May 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Apr 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Apr 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
01 May 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 42 was issued on
27 April and is current for 28-30 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region were near predicted monthly values
UT day 28-Apr. Spread F was observed in Hobart and Canberra during
local nighttime hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
values to 15% enhanced over 29-Apr to 01-May. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Apr
Speed: 419 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 213000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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