[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 29 September 23 issued 2331 UT on 29 Sep 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 30 09:31:16 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 SEPTEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 SEPTEMBER - 02 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Sep: 155/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Sep 01 Oct 02 Oct
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 152/107 148/102 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on Ut day 29-Sep was at the R0 level,
with a few high C-class flares. The largest flare of the day
was a C7.6, produced by an active region over the eastern limb.
This region may produce larger flares when it rotates on to the
solar disk. There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk. AR3449 (N15E08, beta-gamma) was the only sunspot
region to show significant development. AR3444 (N22W61, alpha)
showed some development but is still small and magnetically simple.
All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 30-Sep to 2-Oct.
No geoeffective CMEs were observed on 29-Sep. An, on disk, filament
eruption is visible in SDO and GOES SUVI imagery in the eastern
hemisphere from 29/1837UT. No associated CME is visible in available
coronagraph imagery. The solar wind speed on UT day 29-Sep increased,
ranging from 383 km/s to 520 km/s. The solar wind speed is currently
around 460 km/s. This elevated solar wind speed indicates that
the coronal hole in the northern hemisphere has entered a geoeffective
position. The total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was
9 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +7 to -8
nT. A sustained period of southward Bz was observed from 29/0142UT
to 29/1002UT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain moderate
over 30-Sep to 1-Oct. A gradual decrease towards low speeds is
likely on 2-Oct as the coronal hole in the northern hemisphere
rotates away from a geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 29 Sep : A K
Australian Region 6 11242101
Cocos Island 5 12232100
Darwin 6 21232102
Townsville 7 21233111
Learmonth 8 12243101
Alice Springs 6 11233101
Gingin 6 11242101
Canberra 6 01242101
Hobart 8 12342101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Sep :
Macquarie Island 19 02563011
Casey 10 32243012
Mawson 17 45442100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Hobart 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 9 1201 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Sep 10 G0, chance of G1
01 Oct 8 G0
02 Oct 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 29-Sep. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in Antarctica, with an isolated period of G1 at Mawson
and G2 conditions at Macquarie Island. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 30-Sep, with a chance of G1, due to ongoing coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects. G0 conditions are expected
over 1-2 Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on
29-Sep. Generally normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 30 Sep to 2-Oct, although some mild degradations may be
observed over 29-Sep to 1-Oct at high latitudes due to ongoing
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. Isolated minor shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Sep 126
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 115
Sep 96
Oct 93
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Sep 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
01 Oct 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
02 Oct 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 29-Sep were mostly near predicted monthly values
to 25% enhanced. Minor spread-F was observed at Hobart during
local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values to 15% enhanced over 30 Sep to 2-Oct. Isolated minor shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Sep
Speed: 398 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 54200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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