[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 28 September 23 issued 2331 UT on 28 Sep 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 29 09:31:18 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 SEPTEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 SEPTEMBER - 01 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Sep: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 0907UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Sep: 148/102
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Sep 30 Sep 01 Oct
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 148/102 148/102 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on Ut day 28-Sep was R1, with one impulsive
M1.3 solar flare from AR3450 (S18E55, beta). There are currently
eight numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. All sunspot
groups have decayed in the past 24 hours, except for AR34350,
which has shown only minor growth. Solar activity is expected
to be R0-R1 with a small chance for R2 over 29-30 Sep and 01-Oct.
Some narrow CMEs have been observed near the vicinity of AR3450
in the past 24 hours, and although coronagraph imagery is currently
limited, they are not expected to be geoeffective. No other CMEs
were observed on 28-Sep. The solar wind speed on UT day 28-Sep
was on a general declining trend and ranged between 339 to 522
km/s. The total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +3 to -4
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be at mostly background
levels over 29-30 Sep and 01-Oct but a small increase may be
observed on 29-Sep due to a possible weak glancing blow from
a recent CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 28 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 21110002
Cocos Island 1 11110001
Darwin 2 21110002
Townsville 3 22110012
Learmonth 2 21110001
Alice Springs 2 21110002
Gingin 2 21100001
Canberra 2 12110002
Hobart 2 11110002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Sep :
Macquarie Island 1 11010001
Casey 8 33322002
Mawson 20 36222105
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15 3333 3421
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Sep 12 G0, slight chance G1
30 Sep 8 G0
01 Oct 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 28-Sep. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in Antarctica, with an isolated period of G2 in Mawson.
Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 29-30 Sep
to 01-Oct. There is a small chance of a weak glancing blow from
a recent CME on 29-Sep which may have a chance of producing isolated
periods of G1, but this is low confidence.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
30 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 28-Sep were
good at most latitudes. Generally normal to good HF propagation
conditions are expected over 29-30 Sep to 01-Oct, although some
mild degradations may be observed on 29-Sep during local dawn
hours due to possible weak geomagnetic activity. Isolated minor
shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Sep 107
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 115
Sep 96
Oct 93
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Sep 115 15 to 20% above predicted monthly values
30 Sep 115 15 to 20% above predicted monthly values
01 Oct 115 15 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 102 was issued on
28 September and is current for 28-29 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 28-Sep were mostly
near predicted values to 20% enhanced. Sporadic-E was observed
at most sites during local night and dawn hours. Some spread-F
was observed in Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced over 29-30
Sep and 01-Oct. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Sep
Speed: 475 km/sec Density: 9.3 p/cc Temp: 111000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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