[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 September 23 issued 2330 UT on 14 Sep 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 15 09:30:40 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 SEPTEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 SEPTEMBER - 17 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Sep: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 0745UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.9 1931UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M2.5 2126UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Sep: 145/99
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 148/102 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Sep was at the R1 level,
with an M1.4 flare at 14/0745UT, an M1.9 flare at 14/1931UT and
an M2.5 flare at 14/2126UT.
There are currently six numbered sunspot regions visible on the
solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3429 (N11E06, beta) was
responsible for the M1.9 and M2.5 flares and was partially
responsible for the long duration M1.4 flare. This region displayed
spot development over the UT day and is rotating towards a prime
geoeffective location. The largest component of the long duration
M1.4 flare was produced between AR3423 (N17W75, beta) and AR3425
(N25W38, beta), both of these regions displayed spot decay over
the UT day. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
An unnumbered region is visible at S12E04 with beta magnetic
characteristics.
Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels, over 15-17 Sep.
The long duration M1.4 flare at 14/0745UT produced a slight
enhancement in the >10MeV proton flux, however S0 conditions
are expected over 15-Sep.
The long duration M1.4 flare at 14/0745UT is associated with a
partial halo CME visible in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 14/0724UT.
This CME consists of a dense bulk which is directed to the west
and a, much fainter and slower, partial halo component. Modelling
indicates that a glancing impact from the main bulk is expected on
16-Sep at 2100UT +/- 12 hours and a direct impact from the fainter
halo is expected on 17-Sep at 1000UT +/- 12 hours. No other
geoeffective CMEs were observed on 15-Sep.
A filament liftoff centered at around N45W10 is visible
in SDO, GOES SUVI and H-Alpha imagery from 14/2018UT. No associated
CME is visible in available imagery, further analysis will be
performed when more imagery becomes available.
The solar wind speed increased on 13-Sep, ranging from 353 to
526 km/s and is currently near 480 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +9 to -10 nT. A sustained period of
-Bz was observed from 14/1629UT to 14/1820UT.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain moderately elevated over
15-16 Sep with the chance of a gradual decline. An enhancement in
solar wind speed is expected late on 16-Sep due to a glancing impact
from a CME first observed on 14-Sep. A further enhancement is
expected on 17-Sep due to an impact from a CME first observed on 14-Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 14 Sep : A K
Australian Region 9 22321133
Cocos Island 10 22311134
Darwin 8 22221133
Townsville 8 23222132
Learmonth - --------
Alice Springs 10 23321133
Gingin 15 32311245
Canberra 9 22321133
Hobart 10 22321134
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Sep :
Macquarie Island 15 33320253
Casey 25 35521254
Mawson 46 64422267
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 18 5443 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Sep 10 G0, chance of G1
16 Sep 20 G1, chance of G2
17 Sep 25 G1-G2
COMMENT: Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the
Australian region on 14-Sep, with a period of G1 observed at
Gingin. G1 conditions were mostly observed in the Antarctic region
with periods of G2-G3 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions,
with a chance of G1, are expected on 15-Sep due to ongoing geomagnetic
activity. G1 conditions, with a chance of G2 are expected on
16-Sep due to an anticipated glancing impact late in the UT day,
from a CME first observed on 14-Sep. G1-G2 conditions are expected
on 17-Sep due to an impact from a CME first observed on 14-Sep,
combined with geomagnetic activity from the glancing impact on
16-Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Sep Fair-normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
17 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 14-Sep were
degraded at middle to high latitudes for the first part of the
UT day and mostly normal for the rest of the day. Mostly normal
HF conditions are expected on 15-16 Sep, with degraded conditions
possible late on 16-Sep, especially at high latitudes, due to
anticipated geomagnetic activity. Degraded conditions are expected
on 17-Sep, especially at high latitudes, due to anticipated geomagnetic
activity. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Sep 95
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 55% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 115
Sep 96
Oct 93
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Sep 100 Near predicted monthly values
16 Sep 110 Near predicted monthly values
17 Sep 90 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 91 was issued on
14 September and is current for 14-16 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 14-Sep were depressed by up to 15% in the southern
Australian region and near predicted monthly values in the northern
Australian region. Significant spread F was observed at Brisbane,
Canberra, Perth and Hobart. MUFs are generally expected to be
near predicted monthly values on 15-16 Sep, with mild depressions
possible late on 16-Sep due to anticipated geomagnetic activity.
Depressions of up to 15% are expected on 17-Sep due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity. Depressions are expected to be more prevalent
in the southern Australian region. Isolated shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Sep
Speed: 426 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 106000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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