[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 September 23 issued 2330 UT on 13 Sep 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 14 09:30:42 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 SEPTEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 SEPTEMBER - 16 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Sep: 143/97
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Sep 15 Sep 16 Sep
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 148/102
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-Sep was at the R0 level,
with a C5.5 flare produced by AR3423 (N17W61, beta) the largest
flare of the day.
There are currently six numbered sunspot regions
visible on the solar disk and three unnumbered regions. Both
AR3429 (N11E20, beta-gamma) and AR3430 (S16W31, beta) displayed
spot development over the UT day. AR3429 is the most magnetically
complex region on the solar disk, but it is small and has so
far only produced one M-class flare on 11-Sep. AR3423 is the
largest and most significant sunspot region on the solar disk.
It appears stable and is expected to rotate off the western limb
in the second half of 16-Sep. There are three unnumbered sunspot
regions visible on the solar disk, one at N16E29 with alpha magnetic
characteristics, one at S15E20 with beta-gamma characteristics
and one at N15W17 with beta characteristics.
Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels, over 14-16 Sep.
The >10MeV proton flux was slightly enhanced over 13-Sep but S0
conditions are expected over 14-16 Sep.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed on 13-Sep. A filament lift
off is visible in SDO, GOES SUVI and H-Alpha imagery from 13/0959UT
at around S35W450. An associated, narrow southeast directed CME is
visible in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 13/1100UT. This CME is not
considered geoeffective.
The solar wind speed increased at the start of 13-Sep, before
decreasing by the end of the day. The wind speed ranged from
446 to 371 km/s and is currently near 395 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 13 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -9 nT. The day began with
a sustained period of -Bz until around 13/0100UT.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain low over 14-16 Sep, with
the possibility of mild enhancements on 14-15 Sep due to a pair of
small coronal holes in geoeffective positions.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Sep: G0 Australian
region, G1 planetary
Estimated Indices 13 Sep : A K
Australian Region 9 32223312
Cocos Island 9 32223312
Darwin 9 32223312
Townsville 11 33223322
Learmonth 13 422-----
Alice Springs 10 33223312
Gingin 10 32223313
Canberra 11 22234312
Hobart 12 32234312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Sep :
Macquarie Island 15 33244411
Casey 13 33422313
Mawson 35 43323656
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 25 2123 5634
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Sep 10 G0
15 Sep 7 G0
16 Sep 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on 13-Sep. G0 conditions were mostly observed in the Antarctic
region with periods of G1-G2 observed at Mawson. Planetary geomagnetic
conditions reached G1 for the first period of 13-Sep. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 14-16 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Sep Fair Fair-poor Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Sep Normal Normal Normal
16 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 13-Sep were
degraded at middle to high latitudes. Mostly normal HF conditions
are expected over 14-16 Sep. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Sep 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 115
Sep 96
Oct 93
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Sep 100 Near predicted monthly values
15 Sep 110 Near predicted monthly values
16 Sep 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 13-Sep were
depressed by up to 25% in the southern Australian region and
near predicted monthly values in the northern Australian region.
Significant spread F was observed at Brisbane, Canberra and Hobart
and Sporadic E was observed at Hobart, degrading local HF conditions.
MUFs are generally expected to be near predicted monthly values
over 14-16 Sep. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Sep
Speed: 368 km/sec Density: 10.3 p/cc Temp: 21300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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