[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 20 October 23 issued 2330 UT on 20 Oct 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 21 10:30:09 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 OCTOBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 OCTOBER - 23 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Oct: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 124/77 124/77 122/75
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 20-Oct was R0. There are currently
five numbered sunspot on the disk, although none are considered
magnetically complex. AR3469 (N27W36, beta) has shown some minor
growth over the past 24 hours and all other sunspot regions are
either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be R0
over 21-23 Oct. A filament eruption was observed on the western
solar limb from approximately 20/1148 UT and an associated CME
was observed from 02/1247 UT. This CME is not expected to be
geoeffective. No other CMEs were observed on UT day 20-Oct. The
solar wind speed on UT day 21-Oct was variable and ranged between
325 to 371 km/s but is overall near background levels. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -8 nT. The solar
wind parameter Bz has been oriented southward since 20/1725 UT.
Possible weak CME impacts may increase the solar wind speed over
21-22 Oct, returning to background levels by 23-Oct. The increase
to the solar wind is low confidence however, and is expected
to remain near background levels in the absence of any CME impacts.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 20 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 11123222
Cocos Island 3 11------
Darwin 3 11------
Townsville 6 11123221
Learmonth 7 10123232
Alice Springs 0 00------
Gingin 3 11------
Canberra 0 00------
Hobart 5 11122122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Oct :
Macquarie Island 3 11------
Casey 15 33------
Mawson 7 22------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 2323 2231
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Oct 14 G0, chance G1
22 Oct 14 G0, chance G1
23 Oct 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctica region on UT day 20-Oct. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 21-23 Oct, although there is a slight
chance for isolated periods of G1 on 21 and 22 Oct due to some
possible weak CME impacts. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 23-Oct. Please note that Australian and Antarctica region
geomagnetic data is currently limited for 21 and 22 Oct due to
a planned magnetometer outage.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal
22 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
23 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on
20-Oct. Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 21-23 Oct, with mild degradations possible at high latitudes
if geomagnetic activity occurs.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Oct 106
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 104
Oct 98
Nov 96
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Oct 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
22 Oct 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
23 Oct 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 20-Oct were mostly near predicted monthly values.
Some spread-F was observed at Hobart during local dawn hours.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15%
enhanced over 21-23 Oct.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Oct
Speed: 365 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 66100 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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