[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 19 October 23 issued 2330 UT on 19 Oct 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 20 10:30:49 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 OCTOBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 OCTOBER - 22 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Oct: 129/82
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 128/81 130/84 132/86
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 19-Oct was at the R0 level.
There are currently four numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. AR3467 (N14E02, beta) showed development, after
almost decaying completely, but remains small and simple. There
are no large or magnetically complex sunspot regions present
on the solar disk. All other active regions are stable. Solar
activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 20-22 Oct. No
geoeffective CMEs were observed over the UT day. A fast, northwest
directed, CME is visible in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 19/0148UT.
There is associated coronal loop movement and dimming behind
the western limb at around N40, visible in SDO and GOES SUVI
imagery from 19/0127UT. This CME is not considered geoeffective.
A southeast directed CME is visible in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery
from 19/1536UT. There is no visible, on disk activity associated
with this CME. This CME is not considered geoeffective. A filament
eruption is visible at around S15E60 from 19/1745UT in SDO, GOES
SUVI and H-alpha imagery. There is no associated CME visible
in available coronagraph imagery, further analysis will be performed
when more imagery becomes available. The solar wind speed on
UT day 19-Oct decreased, ranging from 317 to 441 km/s and is
currently near 320 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -7 nT. A sustained period of -Bz (mostly
of low magnitude) was observed from 19/0158UT to 19/1654UT. The
solar wind speed is expected to remain at or near background
levels over 20-Oct until a possible enhancement from a glancing
impact due to a CME first observed on 16-Oct. Further solar wind
speed enhancements are possible on 21-Oct due to CMEs first observed
on 17-18 Oct. All possible CME impacts are low speed and low
confidence. The solar wind speed is expected to be near background
levels on 20-22 Oct in the absence of CME impacts.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 19 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 22231111
Cocos Island 2 21110100
Darwin 4 22220111
Townsville 6 22231111
Learmonth 6 21231211
Alice Springs 5 22230110
Gingin 5 21231210
Canberra 6 22231111
Hobart 7 22241111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Oct :
Macquarie Island 16 23453310
Casey 14 45231112
Mawson 20 35333343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 0212 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Oct 20 G0, chance of G1
21 Oct 20 G0, chance of G1
22 Oct 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 19-Oct. Isolated periods of G1 were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions, with a chance
of G1 are expected on 20-21 Oct, due to possible impacts from
slow CMEs first observed on 16-18 Oct. G0 conditions are expected
on 22-Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
21 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on
19-Oct. Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 20-22 Oct, with mild degradations possible at high latitudes
if geomagnetic activity occurs.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Oct 132
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 104
Oct 98
Nov 96
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Oct 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 Oct 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
22 Oct 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 19-Oct were
near predicted monthly values in the southern Australian region.
MUFs were enhanced by 15% during local day and 20% during local
night in the northern Australian region. MUFs are expected to
be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 20-22 Oct.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Oct
Speed: 380 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 99000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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