[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 26 December 23 issued 2330 UT on 26 Dec 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 27 10:30:09 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 DECEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 DECEMBER - 29 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Dec: 154/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Dec 28 Dec 29 Dec
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 155/109 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 26-Dec was at the R0 level,
with several low level C-class flares. There are currently six
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered
region. AR3529 (S20W49, beta) is the largest region on the solar
disk and has shown decay in its trailer spots. AR3530 (N08W32,
beta) has exhibited recent spot development, particularly in
its intermediate spots. AR3521 (N11W75, alpha) is stable and
will soon rotate over the western limb. An unnumbered region
is visible near S08E15 (beta) which has shown some recent decay.
All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 27-29 Dec, with
a chance of R1. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The
solar wind speed on UT day 26-Dec was mostly stable, ranging
from 445 to 500 km/s and is currently near 475 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the
north south IMF component (Bz) range was +7 to -7 nT. The solar
wind is expected to increase over 27-29 Dec due to forecast CME
arrivals.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 26 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 12222111
Cocos Island 3 11211110
Darwin 5 12212112
Townsville 5 12222111
Learmonth 6 22222112
Alice Springs 6 23212111
Gingin 6 22222112
Canberra 5 13221111
Hobart 6 13222111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Dec :
Macquarie Island 3 12121010
Casey 24 56432222
Mawson 12 33333222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0100 0010
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Dec 16 G0-G1
28 Dec 12 G0, chance of G1
29 Dec 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 81 was issued on 25 December
and is current for 27-28 Dec. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 26-Dec. Mostly G0
geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region,
with a period of G1-G2 observed at Casey. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 27-Dec due to a possible glancing impact from
a CME first observed on 24-Dec. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 28-29 Dec, with a chance of G1 on 28-Dec as CME
effects abate.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 26-Dec were
mostly normal. Normal to fair conditions at middle to high latitudes
are expected on 27-Dec. Normal conditions are expected over 28-29
Dec. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Dec 133
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 114
Dec 100
Jan 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Dec 110 Near predicted monthly values
28 Dec 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Dec 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 26-Dec in
the Australian region were near predicted monthly values, with
enhancements of up to 20% observed in the southern Australian
region. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
over 27-29 Dec, with enhancements of 15% over 28-29 Dec. Isolated
minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Dec
Speed: 451 km/sec Density: 9.8 p/cc Temp: 302000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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