[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 25 December 23 issued 2331 UT on 25 Dec 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 26 10:31:00 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 DECEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 DECEMBER - 28 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Dec: 167/121
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Dec 27 Dec 28 Dec
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 165/119 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 25-Dec was at the R0 level,
with several low level C-class flares. There are currently seven
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered
region. AR3529 (S20W38, beta) is the largest region on the solar
disk, but has remained flare quiet and shown slight decay in
its leader spots. AR3528 (N09W78, beta) appears stable and will
soon rotate over the western limb. AR3531 (S20E03, beta) has
exhibited spot development over the UT day. An unnumbered region
is visible near S01E26 (beta) and has shown spot growth. All
other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 26-28 Dec. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. A northwest directed CME was observed,
visible in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A coronagraph imagery from 25/1323UT.
This CME is associated with a limb prominence eruption and is
not considered geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day 25-Dec
increased, ranging from 355 to 450 km/s and is currently near
430 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 7 nT and the north south IMF component (Bz) range was
+6 to -5 nT. The solar wind is expected to increase over 26-28
Dec due to expected CME arrivals.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 25 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 21100122
Cocos Island 1 11100110
Darwin 3 21100112
Townsville 4 21200122
Learmonth 3 21200112
Alice Springs 2 11100112
Gingin 3 21100122
Canberra 2 11100121
Hobart 3 11200121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 11000011
Casey 22 45542123
Mawson 10 33212332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2323 2101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Dec 5 G0
27 Dec 16 G0-G1
28 Dec 12 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 81 was issued on 25 December
and is current for 27-28 Dec. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 25-Dec. Mostly G0
geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region,
with a period of G1 observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 26-Dec. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 27-Dec due to a possible glancing impact from a CME first
observed on 24-Dec. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on
28-Dec, with a chance of G1 as CME effects abate.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal
27 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 25-Dec were
mostly normal. Mostly normal conditions are expected over 26-28
Dec, with normal to fair conditions at middle to high latitudes
on 27-Dec. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Dec 131
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 114
Dec 100
Jan 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Dec 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 Dec 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Dec 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 133 was issued on
24 December and is current for 24-26 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 25-Dec in the Australian region were near predicted
monthly values, with enhancements of up to 25% observed in the
northern Australian region during local night. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 26-28
Dec. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Dec
Speed: 412 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 140000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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