[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 23 December 23 issued 2330 UT on 23 Dec 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 24 10:30:09 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 DECEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 DECEMBER - 26 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Dec: 174/128
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Dec 25 Dec 26 Dec
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 172/126 168/122 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 23-Dec was at the R0 level.
There are currently nine numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. AR3528 (N09W50, beta) and AR3529 (S20W10, beta)
are the largest sunspot groups on the solar disk, however neither
are magnetically complex, AR3528 displayed decay in its trailer
spots whilst AR3529 appeared stable over the UT day. AR3530 (N09E12,
beta) and AR3533 (N16E33, beta) displayed development over the
UT day, but neither of these regions are large or magnetically
complex. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 24-26 Dec.
No geoeffective CMEs were observed over the UT day. A filament
liftoff is visible on the disk at around S05W18 from 23/0624UT
in SDO, GOES SUVI and H-Alpha imagery. Part of this filament
lifted off the disk on 22-Dec and part of it still remains on
the solar disk after today's liftoff. No associated CME is visible
in available coronagraph imagery. A large filament extending
from N56W07 to N20W50 has remained stable over the UT day and
will continue to be monitored for a potential eruption. The solar
wind speed on UT day 23-Dec increased gradually, ranging from
322 to 439 km/s and is currently near 390 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north
south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -7 nT. A sustained period
of negative Bz was observed from 23/1142UT to 23/1355UT. The
solar wind is expected to continue to increase over 24-Dec, before
gradually declining towards background levels over 25-26 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 23 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 11211213
Cocos Island 3 21101202
Darwin 5 11211113
Townsville 5 11211113
Learmonth 6 21211213
Alice Springs 4 11211112
Gingin 5 21211203
Canberra 5 11222112
Hobart 6 11322212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Dec :
Macquarie Island 8 11203412
Casey 16 35332313
Mawson 8 22223312
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0110 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Dec 8 G0
25 Dec 5 G0
26 Dec 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 23-Dec. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G1 observed
at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 24-26 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Dec Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 23-Dec were
normal to fair for the first half of the UT day, mostly normal
conditions were observed for the rest of the day. Mostly normal
conditions are expected over 24-26 Dec. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Dec 120
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 114
Dec 100
Jan 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Dec 110 Near predicted monthly values
25 Dec 110 Near predicted monthly values
26 Dec 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 23-Dec in
the northern Australian region were near predicted monthly values,
whilst enhancements of up to 25% were observed in the southern
Australian region. Mild spread F was observed at Hobart during
local night. Sporadic E obscured the foF2 at Brisbane at times
between 23/0100UT and 23/0500UT. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values over 24-26 Dec, with the possibility
of further periods of sporadic E. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Dec
Speed: 343 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 50800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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