[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 22 December 23 issued 2331 UT on 22 Dec 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 23 10:31:20 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 DECEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 DECEMBER - 25 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Dec: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.3 0004UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Dec: 187/140
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Dec 24 Dec 25 Dec
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 185/138 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 22-Dec was at the R1 level
due to an M3.3 flare at 22/0004UT produced by AR3519 (S10W79,
beta). There are currently ten numbered sunspot regions visible
on the solar disk. AR3519 produced the only M-class flare of
the day, but is in decay and will rotate off the solar disk over
23-Dec. AR3528 (N09W35, beta) and AR3529 (S20E05, beta) are the
largest sunspot groups on the solar disk, however neither are
magnetically complex and only displayed movement of their trailer
spots during the UT day. AR3526 (N15E08, beta), AR3532 (S15W55,
beta) and AR3533 (N16E47, beta) all displayed development over
the UT day, but none of these regions are large or magnetically
complex. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 23-25 Dec.
Several west directed CMEs were observed, but none are considered
geoeffective. A narrow CME visible in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery
from 22/0024UT is not considered geoeffective. A wider CME visible
in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 22/0512UT is associated with
an eruption visible in SDO and GOES SUVI imagery at around S10W70
from 22/0457UT associated with a large C-class flare produced
by AR3519. This CME is not considered geoeffective. A filament
disappearance is visible in H-Alpha imagery from 22/1112UT at
around N40E00. No associated CME is visible. A CME visible in
SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 22/1848UT is associated with coronal
movement behind the western limb from 22/1820UT visible in SDO
and GOES SUVI imagery. An eruption on the disk is visible at
around S15W10 from 22/2024UT in SDO, GOES SUVI and H-Alpha imagery.
A filament is present in this region but appears to remain intact
following the explosion. No associated CME is visible in currently
available imagery. A filament extending from N45E10 to N20W40
has remained stable over the UT day and will continue to be monitored
for a potential eruption. The solar wind speed on UT day 22-Dec
was steady, ranging from 381 to 314 km/s and is currently near
330 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 6 nT and the north south IMF component (Bz) range was
+5 to -5 nT. The solar wind is expected to remain near background
levels over 23-25 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 22 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 11210110
Cocos Island 1 01110010
Darwin 2 11110111
Townsville 3 11210111
Learmonth 2 21110010
Alice Springs 2 11200110
Gingin 1 11100010
Canberra 1 10200010
Hobart 2 01200110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 00110000
Casey 13 44421121
Mawson 7 23222221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2002 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Dec 5 G0
24 Dec 5 G0
25 Dec 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 22-Dec. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 23-25 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Dec Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Dec Normal Normal Normal
24 Dec Normal Normal Normal
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 22-Dec were
mostly normal at mid and low latitudes, fair to poor conditions
were observed at high latitudes at the start of the UT day. Normal
conditions are expected over 23-25 Dec. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Dec 118
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 114
Dec 100
Jan 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
24 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
25 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 132 was issued on
21 December and is current for 21-23 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 22-Dec in the Australian region were near predicted
monthly values, with enhancements of up to 15% visible in the
northern Australian region during local night. Spread F was observed
at Hobart during local night. Sporadic E was observed at Brisbane
and Canberra at the end of the UT day. MUFs are generally expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 23-25 Dec. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Dec
Speed: 389 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 60600 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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