[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 16 April 23 issued 2330 UT on 16 Apr 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 17 09:30:11 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 APRIL 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 17 APRIL - 19 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Apr: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Apr: 178/131
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Apr 18 Apr 19 Apr
Activity R0-R1,chance R2 R0-R1,chance R2 R0-R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 178/131 170/124 168/122
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 16-Apr was at R0 levels, with
C class flaring from several solar regions. There are currently
9 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. The two largest
solar regions currently on disk are AR3281(S24E30, beta) and
AR3282(N11E29, beta). Solar region AR3282 is showing decay in
its intermediate spots. AR3281 is showing slight growth in its
leader spots. Solar region AR3279(S19E11, beta) continues to
decay. Solar region AR3280(S08W62, beta) is showing decay in
its trailer spots as it approaches the south western solar limb.
Other solar regions are unremarkable. A new active solar region
may be rotating onto the solar disk over the north east solar
limb at solar latitude N22. Solar activity is expected to be
at R0-R1 levels over 17-19 Apr, with a slight chance of isolated
R2 flares. No significant geoeffective CMEs were observed on
16-Apr. A south west CME was observed from 15/2324UT due to an
erupting solar prominence on the south west solar limb (GOES
SUVI 304). A broad angle span, very faint and very slow CME ranging
from north east to north west was observed from 16/0125UT in
LASCO C2. This CME appeared to be a continuation of yesterdays
filament activity, associated with the last segment of filament
erupting in the north west solar quadrant 15/2313UT (SDO304).
This slow CME is not considered significant, with a weak component
arrival possible on 19-20 Apr. The solar wind speed was nominal
and steady, and ranged between 353 - 316 km/s, and is currently
near 322 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF, Bt) reached 9 nT, and the north-south IMF component ranged
between +6 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain
near background levels over 17-18 Apr, with a very slight chance
of a mild increase in solar wind speed on 19-Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 16 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11210001
Cocos Island 2 11220000
Darwin 3 21211001
Townsville 4 21211012
Learmonth 2 11210001
Alice Springs 2 10210001
Gingin 2 10210010
Canberra 2 01210001
Hobart 2 01220001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Apr :
Macquarie Island 2 00230000
Casey 5 23211002
Mawson 10 23212143
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 2132 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Apr 6 G0
18 Apr 8 G0
19 Apr 16 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic region on 16-Apr. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 16-19 Apr. There is a slight chance for a mild
increase in geomagnetic activity on 19-Apr due to a weak glancing
blow(s) from recent CME activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Apr Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions were observed on 16-Apr.
Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 17-18
Apr. Mild degradation possible middle to high latitudes 19-Apr.
Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Apr 123
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40-90%
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15-35%
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15-30%
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 132
Apr 84
May 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Apr 125 15-30% above predicted monthly values
18 Apr 125 15-30% above predicted monthly values
19 Apr 125 15-30% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 37 was issued on
16 April and is current for 17-19 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 16-Apr in the Australian region were enhanced
by 15-90%. Strong enhancements were observed at Cocos Island.
Spread F was observed during local night hours at Hobart. MUFs
are expected to be 15-30% enhanced over 17-19 Apr. Isolated shortwave
fadeouts are possible. Mildly degraded conditions possible local
night hours on 19-Apr, for southern Australian region due to
possible arrival of a weak CME component.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Apr
Speed: 345 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 13200 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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