[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 15 April 23 issued 0348 UT on 16 Apr 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 16 13:48:08 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 APRIL 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 16 APRIL - 18 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
CORRECTED COPY: Solar filament eruption analysis.
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Apr: R0
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.5 14/2327UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Apr: 176/130
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Apr 17 Apr 18 Apr
Activity R0-R1,chance R2 R0-R1,chance R2 R0-R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 178/131 168/122
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 15-Apr was at R0 levels, with
C class flaring from regions AR3272(S21W47, beta), AR3280(S08W50,
beta-gamma), AR3281(S22E42, beta) and AR3282(N11E41, beta). An
impulsive M1 flare was observed late in the UT day yesterday
from solar region AR3282. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk. The two largest regions are AR3281
and AR3282. Solar region AR3282 is growing and is currently the
region most likely to produce flare activity. Solar region AR3281(S22E42,
beta) is also growing and is also likely to produce flare activity.
Solar regions AR3279(S19E23, beta) and AR3280(S08W50, beta) are
decaying. Other regions are considered unremarkable. Solar activity
is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 16-18 Apr, with a chance
of isolated R2 flares. No significant geoeffective CMEs were
observed on 15-Apr. Two solar filament eruptions were observed,
with one of the filament eruptions in the northwest quadrant
now considered a sequence of smaller segment eruptions of the same solar
filament. Three CMEs appear to be possibly associated, an initial
north east CME, a north-north-east (NNE) faint CME, then a slower
faint north west directed CME. Analysis of this event is difficult
as the CMEs are quite faint, appear to have different speeds,
and also uncertainty due to earlier north east CME activity, and
whether the slow north west CME is in fact related to the filament.
It is now considered that there is a slight chance for a very
weak CME impact on 19-Apr from the NNE CME. Another filament
eruption was observed from 15/1549UT at S45W35 with a following
narrow fast southward out of the ecliptic CME. The narrow southward
CME has been modelled and is likely to pass under the Earth.
Frequent north east directed CME activity was observed off/behind
the north east solar limb early in the UT day. The solar wind speed
was on a generally steady trend, and ranged between 433 - 312 km/s,
and is currently near 350 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic
field strength (IMF, Bt) reached 7 nT, and the north-south IMF
component ranged between +5 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain near background levels over 16-18 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 15 Apr : A K
Australian Region 6 12223111
Cocos Island 4 22212001
Darwin 5 12222111
Townsville 6 22223111
Learmonth 6 12223111
Alice Springs 5 11223101
Gingin 6 21223111
Canberra 4 11223100
Hobart 7 11224111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Apr :
Macquarie Island 14 01355100
Casey 7 23223012
Mawson 15 42222235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 7 1012 3212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Apr 8 G0
17 Apr 6 G0
18 Apr 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on 15-Apr. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G1 at Macquarie
Island. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 16-18 Apr.
There is a weak 27 day recurrent geomagnetic pattern for 18-Apr,
but no coronal hole is apparent for this rotation.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Apr Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions were observed on 15-Apr.
Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 16-18
Apr. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Apr 123
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 80% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15-25%.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15-25%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 132
Apr 84
May 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Apr 125 15-30% above predicted monthly values
17 Apr 125 15-30% above predicted monthly values
18 Apr 125 15-30% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 36 was issued on
14 April and is current for 14-16 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 15-Apr in the Australian region were enhanced
by 15-80%. Strong enhancements were observed at Cocos Island.
MUFs are expected to be 15-30% enhanced over 16-18 Apr. Isolated
shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Apr
Speed: 373 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 51100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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