[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 May 22 issued 2331 UT on 15 May 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 16 09:31:04 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 MAY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 16 MAY - 18 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 May: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.2 0008UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 May: 154/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 May 17 May 18 May
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 154/109 152/107 152/107
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 15-May was at R1 level, with
a M2.2 flare originating from beyond the northeast limb (N10)
at 15/0008UT. There are currently eight numbered regions on the
solar disk, although no significant flaring activity has been
observed in addition to the single M-class flare. Regions 3007
(S23W22, beta), 3010 (S14E35, beta) and 3011 (N12E48, beta) are
the most complex regions. Solar activity is expected to be at
R0-R1 levels on 16-18 May, with a slight chance of R2 level.
No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. ACE EPAM data indicated
an energetic ion enhancement event beginning at around 15/1100UT,
although this returned to near background levels from 15/1800UT.
The solar wind speed on 15-May was enhanced, ranging from 428-580
km/s, most likely due to the combined impact of the earlier CME
and coronal hole effects. The solar wind speed is currently near
533 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF Bt) was 15 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was +8 to -9 nT. Bz was intermittently southward between 0017-0321UT.
The solar wind speed is expected to continue to be enhanced over
16-18 May due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 May: G0
Estimated Indices 15 May : A K
Australian Region 9 33213311
Darwin 9 33213311
Learmonth 11 33323311
Alice Springs 9 33213311
Gingin 7 23212310
Canberra 6 23212210
Hobart 7 23213300
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 May :
Macquarie Island 7 22322300
Casey 13 44332221
Mawson 13 34432212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 49 (Unsettled)
Canberra 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 56 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 7 2222 1322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 May 15 G0-G1
17 May 10 G0
18 May 7 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the
Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 15-May. G0 conditions
are likely for the Australian region during 16-18 May, with a
chance of G1 conditions due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for 16-18 May. Short-wave fadeouts are possible during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 May 94
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 77
May 51
Jun 54
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 May 80 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
17 May 80 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
18 May 80 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on 14
May and is current for 15-16 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 15-May were near monthly predicted values to
mildly enhanced. Spread-F was observed at Hobart during night
hours. MUFs are expected to be mostly near monthly predicted
values to slightly enhanced during 16-18 May, although there
is a chance that slight depressions may be observed at mid-high
latitudes due to geomagnetic disturbances. Short-wave fadeouts
are possible during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 May
Speed: 347 km/sec Density: 12.5 p/cc Temp: 49700 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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